A Journey North...and, err... back South again...

Another Saturday night and I ain't got nobody, I got some money cos I just got paid...

2012-01-28T20:26:00.005Z

Thursday: Some great news on the Aunt Sally front as my team, The Three Pigeons scored a fantastic coup by signing up the worlds best player for the forthcoming Oxford & District League Summer season. This means we have one heck of a strong team, and whilst we'll no doubt be handicapped to the hilt by the powers that be, we must have a decent chance of carrying the weight to league glory. I never thought I'd be typing this, but in King Kev we trust.

Friday: God I hate beggars. Whilst waiting patiently at the bus stop, some wideboy ambled up into my face and said "Hello mate I'm not here to beg but...". Now there is only one way that sentence can ever end and it will always be with the bloke asking for money. I totally blanked the scruffy chancer and he repeated the trick all the way down the road, actually with some sickening success.

Now I've made plenty of charitable donations in my life, and often toss the odd pound coin into a poor looking souls hat on the way home, it's just the brazen cheek of waltzing up and asking for it that annoys me. If a bloke wearing a silly hat is juggling to a half decent standard, or someone on a guitar that can play a tune with more than three chords, then by all means give generously if you feel like it. At least they've put a bit of effort in.

Saturday: The FA cup has been a real money spinner for me this year, so I was looking forward to another decent acca. Unfortunately the only dead cert I could find on the coupon was Leicester to beat Swindon at a best priced 8/13 with William Hill, so I had £130 to win £80. Jermaine Beckford has scored goals against some of the Premier Leagues best defences, so he was hardly going to struggle notching against "the scum" (as they are affectionately known in these parts). Easy money, should have had a monkey on.

I fancied a few horses today as well, but no luck. Dynaste looked to have Big Bucks in a spot of bother, but my £10 win at 11/1 was doomed to failure when the best horse in training responded to Ruby's urgings as ever. I received a paltry £12 back from the various equine investments, but all is not lost.

I angrily placed the £12 on a hopeful to say the least treble of Brighton 13/5, Sunderland 8/13, Arsenal 4/7. With the seagulls doing the business against perennial cup strugglers Newcastle, hopes are alive for a ton plus payout tomorrow and a decent weekend.

Had a nice return from the Test Match, and can't wait to listen to the TMS podcast on the way to work tomorrow. In this morning's installment Sir Geoffrey Boycott had bet all three of his houses on England winning, so it should be comedy gold listening to him describe the shambles of an innings. Laying test match draws in the modern cricket era has to be the easiest money you can find.

Unfortunately all the snooker bets are down without any of them reaching finals day. I genuinely thought Judd Trump would take some beating in this tournament, but it turns out according to his twitter feed that all he was bothered about was watching the Liverpool game and going out on the lash. Davis and Hendry never won all those World titles with that attitude sunshine.

Ron Nasty's Top 52 Beatles Countdown - No.48

2012-01-27T06:43:00.001Z

Benidorm

2012-01-26T18:32:00.005Z

This isn't a post about either my mother or my deputy managers impending holiday destination, or indeed the ITV sitcom of the same name. This weekend in Benidorm sees the beginning of a brand new year of PDC darts, and a good opportunity for the "new signings" to lay down an early marker.

I was hoping to do a rundown of some of the new PDC players and pick out one or two juicy bets to last the year such as "Player X to win a Players Championship event in 2012". I'm sure that at least one firm priced this up last year, but the lack of markets is both surprising and disappointing.

The PDC is getting bigger and better every year, TV ratings beat everything except Soccerball, but unless there's a major championship on it's as if the sport doesn't exist. If John Henderson was playing Barrie Bates in a Sky tournament, there would be about fifty different markets ranging from the colour of the first double hit, to whether Bates could average over 79.5 or not. But if Gary Anderson plays James Wade this weekend, the best we can hope for is a tweet from one of the players in attendance telling us who won.

Fear not though darts betting fans, the World Cup is live on Sky next weekend, and no doubt Uncle Phil has had the format changed to prevent any embarrassments like last year. But it's going to be a great year for darts both on and off TV, and there are enough of the players tweeting these days to make sure we're kept abreast of current form etc. A couple of lines on the prospects of some of the more interesting new additions:

Ted Hankey: The misspelled Count seems to be very underrated as a darts player. The trend of the modern era is to judge a player on their averages but that isn't always the be all and end all. Hankey is a two time World Champion (and could possibly have become three time if he had wanted to recently), and has the knack of knocking ten points off his opponents average.

I genuinely feel that Ted would do fairly well in the televised majors, but you don't get handed tickets into them anymore, and he's going to have to perform to a consistent level in the Players Championships for the next two years to become a regular on TV. Whether he can do that is the big question.

Dean Winstanley: Former Lakeside runner-up, Winstanley proved he can mix it with the very best with some decent performances in the Grand Slam. I don't expect it to take him too long to make the TV events, as he should start getting some decent floor results quickly. I don't think he's good enough yet to be talked about as a top ten or even top sixteen player though. His counting is abysmal and he misses too many pressure doubles.

The West Brothers: No comment as I enjoy having my kneecaps exactly where they are.

Stuart Kellett: Kellett burst onto the darting scene by reaching the televised stages of the 2007 World Masters, but it was his great year in 2010 that made it look like we had the next big superstar on our hands. He was the strong 16/1 tip of this blog to win the 2011 Lakeside Title, and after thrashing Daryl Fitton 3-0 with a great average, those odds were suddenly cut by three quarters. Unfortunately he then swaggered onto the stage for his next match, high on over-confidence or god knows what, and tamely lost to Mr.Coat with a 79 average.

At 30 years of age he has time on his side, and won his tour card easily enough, but will this precocious talent thrive in the PDC, or will his haphazard attitude hold him back? The fact that he hasn't arranged any sponsorship in time to even make the trip to Benidorm this weekend is not a good early sign, but he's the sort of lad who could do us a few favours at nice prices if he ever gets the chance.

Sky Snooker Shootout

2012-01-24T09:53:00.005Z

So where was I? Oh yeah, Sunday was a good day wasn't it? In fact, Sunday was my best days gambling for a very long time. The only way it could have been any better is if a naked Kelly Brook had been led on my bed pressing the back and lay buttons for me whilst I was tenderly caressing her shapely bits.

Having already backed the Manchester double at 4/1, I woke up even more confident that City were good things at home to Spurs, and loaded up the gun at 1.9 on Betfair. After firing enough ammo at this my mate Neal very generously offered me a further £20 at evens, the biggest price anywhere in the world, so I took that as well.

The game went perfectly, as I laid City in running at 1.38 at 1-0, 1.06 at 2-0, and then kept laying the draw at prices from 2.0-1.6 between the 70 and 80 minute mark. The last second penalty was the icing on the cake and led to a huge payout, not to mention almost certainly leaving my mate in a fit of seething anger.

As well as the bonus of the double to come if United could beat my team, I'd had a large bet on both teams to score at 4/6. For most of the game these two bets were conflicting against each other, but as soon as Arsenal scored, the increasingly hapless Wenger totally changed the momentum of the game by bringing off the highly promising Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and replacing him with the highly disinterested Andrei Arshavin. In Arsene we rust.

An evening NFL double was landed with the Giants winning and unders in the Baltimore-New England game, and a sloppy last minute back of overs in the late game was the only blemish to an otherwise perfect day. For what it's worth I think the Patriots are good things for the Superbowl and will be all over the -3 handicap between now and game time.

This weekend sees the Sky Snooker Shootout. Gutted that I'm working all weekend and will therefore see none of it at all as last years inaugural event was one of my sporting highlights of the year. Some of the snooker purists and officianados I follow on twitter will no doubt talk down about the event, much preferring a best of 35 frame with no shot clock format.

As last years semi finalists proved, picking a winner of this event is nigh on impossible, but that won't stop me trying. I've had three bets, the biggest of which is Judd Trump, at a standout 18/1 with Ladbrokes. This format should hold no fears for the cool and confident Bristolian, and he's surely in with a great chance of going deep.

I've also gone for a couple of smaller bets on Ricky Walden at 50/1, and Alfie Burden at 100/1. Walden has been on the verge of the top 16 for a while, and obviously enjoys this format, losing 130-0 in the first round last year. Young Burden went down in my notepad in this event last year as a possible future winner, the event looks right up his street.

The fact of the matter is though you could have fifty bets and still not be guaranteed to pick the winner, that's what makes the event must watch TV.

I must give a shout out to my good mate Dave, the captain of our Winter Darts team who's currently living the dream (not to mention earning a fortune) by living and working in New York City. But he hasn't forgotten his roots, and here's hoping his NY darts team "Beer Parabola" can take down this prestigious tournament http://nydo.com/html/MonDivCf11.htm

Oh and don't forget to lay the draw in the England v Pakistan test at just above evens. Modern day test players have no idea how to play five days worth of cricket anymore.

Here We Are Now, Entertain Us

2012-01-21T23:42:00.005Z

Well they say good things come to those who wait, and let's hope the sporting and gambling gods are true to those words. This has been a tough week - working loads of hours, staff sickness helping to make me look a bit of a pillock to a rather important company higher up, subtlely threatened by knife wielding mentalists, not to mention affairs of the heart becoming rather more complex than should be the case.

But two things have made the stress and sleep deprivation well worth it. The promise of the biggest paycheck of my life next Friday (although probably two or three days "work" to some of the Betfair boys that may read this), and the quite magnificent sporting fare on the table today.

Saturday yielded a very small profit. The horsie Lucky 15 held it's own, and could have been much better if the well fancied Royales Charter hadn't fallen, and Forpadydeplasterer could have kicked on for third rather than fourth.

The double went down thanks to yet another failure from Oxford United. I know plenty of people at the game who tell me that they should have beaten Hereford around 8-2 today. Michael Duberry scored three goals, although unfortunately two of them were in his own net. But the fact of the matter is Oxford have lost more leads than David Blunkett this season, and must be swerved from this point onwards.

However, Bolton's 11/2 victory over Liverpool pulled us slightly in the black. Long time readers of this blog will be well aware that Liverpool are..., well shite is a bit harsh, overrated is more apt. I know many extremely switched on Liverpool fans well aware of the failings, but the majority sadly still think they are living in the glory days of thirty years ago.

But it seems that even some of those are beginning to turn against "King Kenny". It's never good for long term success to be labelled a King. Whether it be Kenny Dalglish, Kevin Keegan, or King Louis XVI of France, it will usually end in tears. You can bet Rafa Benitez ordered in a king size box of chocolate eclairs for tonight's Match Of The Day viewing.

I'm not going mad on the punting today, as I'm going to do some good old fashioned poker grinding whilst enjoying the sporting action. But I can't resist Ladbrokes' offer of 4/1 that both Manchester teams win. City are without key players, but so are Spurs and City's home record deserves massive respect, added to the fact Spurs are becoming ludicrously over-hyped.

Arsenal improved massively after the 8-2 nadir at Old Trafford, but the basic problems have resurfaced in the last few games. Having been a gooner for long enough now (about thirteen years, and QPR signing Barton would have severed my hoops ties anyway) I'm used to getting beaten by United and can't see today being much different. It won't be 8-2, but we simply can't defend properly, and whilst I expect a strong offensive Arsenal showing, I'm not sure it will be enough to paper over the cracks. Both teams to score at 4/6 is an absolute must bet in this game.

Really enjoyed the snooker this week having been able to view some of the terrestrial non red button action. The fact of the matter is there are seven or eight world class players capable of winning the big tournaments these days, and it's impossible to predict with the standard (and the easiness of the tables?) so high.

Masters Finals night is as big a cauldron as snooker atmosphere gets, and I expect the rowdy crowd to favour the much more likeable Aussie. This is as close a contest as you can get though, so we could be in for a cracker that goes all the way. For this reason I'm dutching 10-9 and 10-8 to Neil Robertson, both at 8/1.

Finally, a big thank you to top blogger Snookerbacker for contributing his Smiths/Morrissey songs of the week for the past year plus, culminating in the recent Top Ten that concludes this week. There have been some snide and quite frankly harsh remarks about some of these selections.

One rather biting email I received on the subject stated "You've hit some lows on this blog. Showcased a song about the Kent State Massacre, suggested a village indulged in untoward matters, and posted a video of a politician shooting himself. But The Smiths song of the week made the aforementioned seem quite cheerful".

However, the good news for all concerned is that Mr. SB has signed up for another year of selections. We're not entirely sure of the title yet but the theme will be along the lines of Manc/Scouse songs, so expect some gems from the Roses/Carpets/Oasis/Cast etc. no doubt with some lesser known great tunes thrown in. This new feature will appear next Friday evening.

Footy Tips

2012-01-20T23:22:00.002Z

Ultra quick update (one day left of 67.5 hours in five days not including travelling time...): Main bet tomorrow is a West Ham/Oxford double which pays 2.71 with William Hill.

West Ham are joint top of the Championship and seem to have not moved out of third gear, whilst Nottingham Forest are terrible. Oxford can't seem to string a run of results together but the Kassam will be buzzing tomorrow with news of Constable staying and I'd be surprised if they don't pick up all three points.

Small single on Bolton to beat Liverpool as 11/2 is surely too big.

Can't wait for Sunday: Two huge EPL and NFL games, Masters Snooker final and the dilemma about whether to try and defend the Pigeons Poker Title or not.

Ron Nasty's Top 52 Beatles Countdown - No.49

2012-01-20T06:41:00.001Z

Leader Of The Twitterati

2012-01-19T21:20:00.008Z

Well who would have thought it, music legend and former kiddy fiddler Gary Glitter has taken the plunge and joined Twitter. A few days ago this eventuality would have been priced up in one of Paddy Power's novelty markets at a similar price to Elvis winning the Triumph Hurdle on a rocking horse.

You've got to admire the man's bravery in signing up to the social networking bandwagon though. If Hayley Turner, perhaps the most perfect creature ever created can get nasty messages from the public on there, you'd expect Glitter to get one or two more.

Of course, it didn't take Joey Barton long to get involved, and the fact that Barton seems to be by far the more hated of the pair pretty much sums up the footballers attitude to life this season, not to mention QPR's league position.

In other news it was Day 1 of the PDC Q-School today and the heartwarming news to all darts fans is that Tony West has earnt his place amongst the PDC elite. All the reports I've received suggest that the West brothers have been pillars of the Amsterdam community in recent years and I'll be saying a prayer tonight that Steve can join Tony in beating up the cream of the crop on the dartboard. And if Bazza needs any extra security on Premier League nights - look no further.

Nothing at all to report on the betting front. I'll try and dig out a few bets for the weekend tomorrow but this week is all about cheering on antepost 13/2 shot Mark Selby in the snooker. The boy Trump looks good though, doesn't he? It's the naïveté of youth that makes him so dangerous. Why he couldn't have been this "naughty" when I backed him at 100/1 for the World Championship two years ago God only knows.

And finally is it me, or is Frankie Cocozza becoming partially likeable in the Big Brother house?

Pigeons field totally outplayed again

2012-01-16T16:36:00.004Z

Well the NFL games certainly didn't disappoint with the exception of the Broncos-Patriots game. Tom Brady had a look of "why did we even have to bother turning up for this" on his face during the 45-10 rout.

The Giants pulled off the shock of the week, winning in Green Bay. I've never been able to understand why teams who have clinched the No.1 seed rest their starting QB for the last few games. Aaron Rodgers who had been virtually unplayable all season long looked ring rusty last night, missing some easy passes.

The weekend wagering was almost identical to the week before. Lose a packet on Saturday only to claw it back on Sunday. Having seen a twitter tip for a 10/11 shot at Kempton yesterday, I waded in with £60 and was rather glad the line came a split second before it got overtaken by a fast finishing beast.

But it was also a winning return to the infamous Pigeons Poker game last night, trousering £60 for my efforts. It was all going swimmingly up until the 200-400 level when the wheels started to fall off. I was doubling people up left, right and centre, and had gone from huge chip leader to one of the shorter stacks.

But then came a remarkable hand against Neil that turned things round and I never looked back after that. I called his preflop raise with pocket sixes, and the flop came Q6x. I led out for a small amount hoping he'd reraise me. Indeed he did, and when all the money went in I was delighted. Until, that is, he flipped over pocket Queens, making me a huge underdog. The turn gave me a flush draw, but when the river card came down as the last remaining six giving me quads I let out a huge scream of joy. What a sick hand.

Five straight days at work now so won't be many updates on here but I will be keeping an eye out to see if any firms are pricing up the PDC Q-School. There could be some decent bits of value if they do but it wouldn't surprise me if they dodge it.

Tebow Time

2012-01-14T11:13:00.008Z

Three days off and I'm big time psyched up for these NFL games. Having not been able to watch much of the regular season this year, or any of the College action which was the highlight of the week the last few years, I made a point of arranging holidays for the Post-season. I'm in no position to offer any tips on these games, but I've backed New Orleans -3.5 and Denver +13.5. I've also taken advantage of Ron Nasty's late night twitter tip of Tom Brady to score a touchdown at 7/1 with Coral. The fact that it was odds on in a place shows the value of the bet.

Was leaning towards the 49ers all week (the Saints have never won a play-off game on the road), but people in the know seem to think this Saints team is better than the Superbowl winning version, so have switched allegiances.

As for the night game I can't wait. Tim Tebow's destruction of the Pittsburgh Steelers got over 60 million viewers, so God knows what kind of ratings he will get against Brady, Belichick and the Patriots. Can the Broncos win? Damn right they can. The Patriots are not the team they were, in fact they haven't been for a while. They are still a powerful force on offence, but Denver have a decent defence, and an upset is not out of the question, and I strongly fancy them to stay within 13.5 points.

As for the darts, what a shambles this tournament has been. The BDO is nothing but an old boys club run by cretins like Fitzmaurice, Adams and Gulliver. Gulliver in particular comes across as pure evil (she was once booked for an exhibition at my local - didn't turn up, and didn't even phone to say she wasn't coming), and (despite my tenner to the contrary) it was great to see Anastasia soundly beat "The Golden Girl".

What happened next of course was a sickening match report published on the BDO website, suggesting the Russians antics were the only reason she won. Much of that report was copied word for word from the mouth of David Croft on commentary who I honestly thought was better than that, but clearly he's been brainwashed too.

Celebrity Big Brother is far more enjoyable than the BDO darts, and has probably got more credibility these days as well. I'm annoyed I didn't take the fancy prices on Michael Madsen on opening night. Madsen is by far the biggest star in the house, and whilst he won't win, he's already favourite which would have made a decent trade if Betfair was working.

The Masters Snooker starts tomorrow, and the advice from this blog, as well as many other opinions I've seen is to get on Mark Selby at 13/2. This will be the first time I've had a bet on the Masters and backed anybody other than Ronnie O'Sullivan. I've always felt the hostile London crowd was worth a couple of frames start, but Ronnie's game just isn't as solid as it was five years ago, and this tournament is wide open.

Selby is a Masters specialist, reaching the final three years running between 2008-2010, winning two of them, including one against Ronnie 10-9 in a pressure cooker atmosphere. The word I'm getting is that he's playing really well again, and the draw looks kind enough, so I'm hopeful of a big run from "The Jester From Leicester".

Just the one horse bet today and that's an each way investment on David Pipe's Decoy at 7/1 best odds guaranteed in the 2.50 at Kempton.

We Are Leeds

2012-01-13T23:27:00.002Z

Worked my testicles off this week but it's all worth it as I've got three days holiday now which was planned in advance for the NFL Play-Off games. Much more on those, as well as my views on the increasingly despicable BDO darts scene, and Masters Snooker to come tomorrow.

Nothing quite leaps out on the Soccerball this weekend. In the old days I'd happily have had three bags on Manchester United to win £500, but completely swerving the top division and just having a very small single on Leeds to beat Crystal Palace at 9/5 with Blue Square.

I don't mind at all if this bet goes down. I've had one bet all week and that was a Palace/Tony O'Shea double on Tuesday night which paid a touch over 4/1, so the Eagles are in my good books.

But after their previous Carling Cup heroics at Old Trafford, they could only manage a 1-1 draw at home to Derby, and with Leeds bouncing back from their recent slump and looking to get back in the playoff picture, the odds of an away win are fair enough.

Ron Nasty's Top 52 Beatles Countdown - No.50

2012-01-12T23:47:00.000Z

Who's minding the shop?

2012-01-09T12:18:00.006Z

A well earnt day off after a busy weekend of work, but disappointing on the punting front. I ended up about £17 to the good in the end, thanks to the five timer on the FA Cup and the Denver Broncos.

The five timer was the main bet, and that's the sort of accas you want. None of them were ever in any doubt, they all won by at least two goals, 7/4 thank you very much, job done. Unfortunately I diluted any great winnings by frittering away tenners on a host of other things.

Backing Colour Squadron at 9/4 was genuinely unlucky (punted into 11/8 favourite, done at 1.01 in running), and Wigan missed a penalty to go 2-0 up only to get beaten by an offside goal, but there's no excuse for playing the Irish Lottery, and certainly no excuse for listening to Tony Cascarino's tips.

The Denver-Pittsburgh game was incredible. I was confident that Timmy Tebow and the Broncos defence would be smart enough to keep the game close and cover the eight point start. I didn't think that they could actually win.

Tebow is a phenomenon, something I brought to the attention of this blog in 2008 when he won us the National Championship. The guy looks shit, but he somehow wins. Everyone said he couldn't pass, but when the Steelers committed to stop the run last night daring him to throw the ball, he shredded their defence to pieces, well he did on at least three occasions anyway.

And when you've got God on your side, you're never going to lose a coin toss, unless it's against JJ Dillon, who went 82-0 in the War Games matches in WCW in the mid to late 80's.

Haven't been able to watch any of this darts malarkey on BBC, but the read through of the daily thread on the forum has had me in stitches. What a total amateur outfit the BDO are. For all the poor standard of darts, there are some genuinely good dart players in the tournament who would more than hold their own in the PDC top 32. But they just don't help themselves.

We've got callers who either talk with a lisp or can't count. Commentators who haven't got a clue what's going on anymore, a despicable emcee that still enjoys telling racist jokes in 2012, and most importantly of all, two bent matches in as many days. Chris Mason (by FAR the best person I follow on twitter, give the man a few drinks and watch him go...) was in uproar on Saturday night, implying that a certain Geordie had cost him eleven grand by throwing a match and that he would, err, like a quiet word in his ear next time he sees him. How he never got offered the Sky gig is beyond me...

Anyway, I've had several people asking me who I fancied for the tournament, and my reply was Martin Phillips at 22/1. The fact that he's already out shows my knowledge of this organisation. I think Martin Adams is by far the likeliest winner now, but haven't had a bet, opting instead for a tenner on Trina for the Womens title at 3/1.

FA Cup Wagers

2012-01-05T23:01:00.005Z

The NFL playoffs start this weekend, and forgive me for not getting too excited about my potential three grand windfall. Whilst in theory I'm five wins away from that figure (Atlanta winning the Superbowl would be worth £1700 and a double with Alabama winning the National Championship on Monday would account for the rest), it would be the ultimate cinderella story for the Falcons to get it done.

The fact that they were a best priced 16/1 pre-season, yet available at 50/1 now despite making the playoffs illustrates the enormity of the task. While I think they have a great chance of toppling the Giants on Saturday, the prospect of road games against the Packers and Saints, not to mention the small matter of a Superbowl afterwards hardly fills me with confidence.

A more realistic chance of profits comes from this weekends FA Cup games. A nice little cup acca was one of the few high points of my recent trip to Brighton, so it would be rude not to have another little dabble on the third round.

I've gone for a decent acca on Everton, Spurs, Chelsea, Aston Villa, and Sheffield United which pays around the 7/4 mark with Coral. I've also gone for a medium sized single on 6/4 Wigan, who should have far too much class for Swindon, and a small punt on Fleetwood to topple neighbours Blackpool at 7/2.

But no amount of winnings from that lot will be able to erase the shocking mental image lodged in my brain thanks to this weeks Popbitch story on The Krankies. I'd like to remember wee Janette Krankie as the person who brought joy to my childhood television viewing with the jokes, the songs, and the custard pies. Not on all fours being spit roasted by two large penises.

Ron Nasty's Top 52 Beatles Countdown - No.51

2012-01-05T23:00:00.001Z

Return Of The Discipline

2012-01-04T23:24:00.003Z

I've calmed down enough to be able to write a few lines. To be honest, Whitlock's (and for that matter Wade's) collapse took an awful lot out of me emotionally. I'd laid a few quid of the bet off when he was 3-1 up against Anderson, but decided not to bother against Andy Hamilton.

Not that I didn't respect the consistent Stoke plodder, but you should assess every situation on it's merits and felt that 2/1 was too short. What I'm really annoyed about is going out rather than staying in and controlling the bet by watching the action live. I'd have laid a chunk of Whitlock at 1.33 and lower, and the same in the Wade game. My mood was not enhanced at all by the way the two victors "performed" in the dreadful final.

I did lose the plot for a day or so. A rash four timer on Monday's footy had Victor Chandler laughing his socks off (to tell you how rash it was, I even included Aston Villa as one of the selections), and a far too big bet on the Darts final having a highest checkout of lower than 145 was sloppy beyond belief.

I (correctly, as it turned out) felt that the gruelling semis, not to mention Lewis probably not needing to get out of third gear would produce a poor final. It did, but I should have gone under on the averages, because amongst the average tungsten, "The Hammer" managed to knock in a 147 to rub it in.

My New Years plans of strictness and discipline that would eventually lead to world domination were in tatters, so the last email I needed to receive was from Bet365 informing me that they were repeating their great £50 free bet offer. For the unaware, you just bet £50 on a selected game pre-match, and you get a free £50 bet in running, which is not to be sniffed at.

I was beginning to think though that the good folks at Bet365 were akin to heroin pushers. They gave us all the first one free (Barcelona at evens vs Man United was as gentle a full toss as you can get), but

had got the better of me on the last couple and I was hooked on their mesmeric value.

But Man City 5/6 at home to Liverpool was every bit as good as it looked. Liverpool, who most regular readers will know that I feel are hugely overrated, had their best three players either suspended or on the bench, and the only concern was whether my iPhone would be quick enough to get the in play bullseye on before City scored. Luckily it did (just), and despite a desperately unlucky Spurs HT/FT punt (one that a helpful twitter follower informed we was a "silly bet son"), my head is back level again.

After gratefully receiving £13 in tips today I risked the £3 with £1 bets on the following scores in the NUFC v MUFC game: 2-2 Draw @ 16/1, 3-2 @ 50/1, 2-4 @ 50/1. After 50 minutes all of those looked live but United really are poor at the moment.

When Ferguson came out the other day and heroically said he'd stand down in three years time, was it merely to disguise the fact that his position is at by far it's shakiest since 1990? By Monday morning they will be out of all the cups except the one on Channel 5, and a mountain to climb in the League. Whether the Old Trafford higher ups respect Jose Mourinho's ego or not, you cannot argue with his coaching results. Will there be a better candidate ready and waiting in 2015?

Still, how good has the Premier League been this year? Last years was shite, but the combination of City blazing a trail and two of the three promoted teams (sorry Joey) acquitting themselves so well, not to mention some of the incredible results of the last two weeks has been great for the game.

Hamilton v Lewis

2012-01-02T17:01:00.002Z

"Dave I'm the best in the world and I deserve some respect". Yeah, course you do son...

The best World Darts Championship of all time comes to an end tonight, with a match that wouldn't have sold out a quarter of capacity if it had been announced 17 days ago. Forgive me for being in such a bad mood but I'm still in disbelief at what happened last night.

I returned home from the Pigeons pub quiz (a respectable joint-4th) looking forward to the darts. I have no idea at all how Simon Whitlock and James Wade managed to throw their games away, costing me a fortune in the process.

You have to worry about Wade in particular. The 8-0 up loss to Scott Waites took him a year to recover from, but this was much worse, and his confidence must be absolutely shot to pieces. I'll continue to back him at decent prices, because for large parts of these Championships he looked the best player in the world, but you can't afford to switch off against top players like Lewis and Part, or you're in trouble.

I'll be cheering on Hamilton tonight, and he's got every chance of springing a small upset, but I've just had one bet and that's the following:

Highest Checkout Under 144.5 - 2pts @ 5/6 with Victor Chandler

The line just looks a bit high to me and most firms are going 140.5.

Semi-Finals...

2011-12-31T20:57:00.004Z

An interesting day today which started in bizarre style. On the way to and from work I've been listening to some of the albums I got for Christmas. Well this morning was the turn of "Piper At The Gates Of Dawn", the debut album from Pink Floyd.

Well I must say I quite enjoyed it, although requires another couple of listens to rate it properly. But I had to chuckle whilst listening...It was clearly written to be enjoyed whilst under the influence of acid ("I've got a bike, you can ride it if you like"), rather than freezing your bollocks off at 7.20am on a bus.

And there was a big time seethe today also. Having taped UFC last night, eager to watch the Brock Lesnar v Alistair Overeem fight tonight without knowing the result, I thought I'd done everything right. I skipped through the nighttime twitter timeline and everything was looking good. Then what happens? The bloke from Ladbrokes over the road comes in to collect his winning £1 acca on the UFC (the first one he's ever got up after numerous attempts), which showed me that Overeem had been victorious against "The next big thing". He's won £3.40 at the expense of my New Years Eve entertainment ffs.

Andy Hamilton v Simon Whitlock

So here we go...Anyone who took the antepost advice to have a 2pt win bet on Simon Whitlock at 33/1 is sitting very pretty. I thought he could get this far, and was expecting Phil Taylor in the semis. To be 4/9 favourite against Andy Hamilton is a huge bonus, but we're not home and dry yet.

The advice has to be to let the bet ride and then have a decent enough chunk on the opponent in the final, but Hamilton is not without a shout. I honestly think Whitlock will win this match but "The Hammer" must be respected.

He's got here the hard way having beaten a young Alcinas who played out of his skin, a comeback win against the gutsy Van De Voort, a shocking whitewash of the brilliant Chisnall, and a rather easier win against Huybrechts, who to be fair hadn't beaten much to get there.

It's fingers and everything else crossed that The Wizard makes the final...

No Bet

Adrian Lewis v James Wade

Defending champ Lewis is not without a chance here but the prices are plain wrong. With the exception of a couple of ultimately meaningless Championship League Darts fixtures, Lewis is owned by Wade.

Every time they have met in a TV knockout match, Wade hasn't just won, but he's won with plenty in hand. Remember Ady crying after the Grand Prix final, moaning about James' feet being near to the oche?

I get the feeling that James will be hugely confident of victory here, and he can also expect to have the majority of the crowd on his side after Lewis' outburst the other night.

Wade's match averages have never meant a great deal. Lewis has averaged 96.41, 96.24, 95.94, and 92.41 in this tournament. If he plays to that standard tomorrow, I'm on Wade all day long.

Wade to beat Lewis - 3pts @ 5/4 (Stan James, Betfred)

Blog Awards 2011: Woman Of The Year

2011-12-31T20:10:00.003Z

After all the non betting shop workers got a completely unnecessary day off, costing Great Britain's economy billions of pounds in the process, I put up a blog post with no words, just the accompanying picture entitled "Pippa Middleton's Arse". I ended up getting over 40,000 hits on here for that post alone, and statistical analysis shows that at least fourteen of them became regular readers.

For that reason alone young Pippa is a shoo-in, and although those that took the 1/50 that she would ditch her cricketer boyfriend by years end were made to sweat a bit, she duly obliged and is now on the market. Happy New Year Pippa!

Honourable Mentions: Alex Hammond, Suzi Kolber, Dana Verhaegen

Blog Awards 2011: Man Of The Year

2011-12-31T20:04:00.003Z

In typical Clive James not to be taken too seriously style (If you want serious analysis, visit sister website www.snookerbacker.com), it's only fair to do the year end awards.

It was a tough choice for man of the year but eventually with a year end surge the winner is none other than Mr. Olly Murs.

He seems a decent sort of bloke, never took the X Factor too seriously, yet ended up being one of the very few from that show that actually sold some records. But the award clincher was allegedly shagging former ECOTW Caroline Flack behind her 14 year old boyfriends back, whilst simultaneously coming clean to the Daily Mail that he was a 400 ladies a year sex addict. Top bloke sir.

Honourable Mentions: Robin Van Persie, Fred Done, Simon Whitlock

Ron Nasty's Top 52 Beatles Countdown - No.52

2011-12-30T11:58:00.001Z

Quarter Finals

2011-12-30T11:44:00.006Z

Well after two full days at work, missing what from all accounts has been four fantastic sessions at the Ally Pally, I'm off today and well up for the darting action. I'm already in high spirits after yesterday's horsie bet (£20 on Unaccompanied at 4/1). It would be unfair for me to call Thousand Stars a bit of a plodder, as it's run some cracking races in top company, but you only have to look at it's SP in some of those races to see that it could be susceptible to something with a bit of class (not to mention something getting a 10lb weight allowance).

Anyway, we've got four Quarter Finals today that could all go either way which will make for great viewing. The evening session in particular is simply mouthwatering, which is great news for Charlie Adam and Andy Carroll, whose amateur mishaps en route to Newcastle springing a 6/1 shock at Anfield won't be witnessed by as many people as normal.

I'm not going to offer any predictions on the darts today. It's fingers and everything else crossed for anybody who took the 33/1 Simon Whitlock advice. We are rightly underdogs tonight against Anderson, but if it comes down to finishing, there's obviously only one winner.

I've just had trebles and an acca for a bit of interest in the following:

Hamilton v Huybrecht - Over 130.5 Checkout @ 5/6
Wade v Part - Over 130.5 Checkout @ 5/6
Anderson v Whitlock - Over 135.5 Checkout @ 5/6
Lewis v Jenkins - Over 16.5 180's @ 5/6

The Beatles

2011-12-29T11:00:00.002Z

I'm excited, not to mention proud, that starting tomorrow one of the nations foremost Beatles experts begins the thankless task of counting down a top 52 list from the best band of all time on this very blog.

Every Beatles fan out there could spend days on end narrowing it down to 52. To get a taste of how tricky it is I've just tried to quickly knock up a top ten of my own and came up with 21:

A Day In The Life

All You Need Is Love

And Your Bird Can Sing

Being For The Benefit Of Mr. Kite

Cry Baby Cry

Hello Goodbye

Here Comes The Sun

Hey Bulldog

I Should Have Known Better

I Want To Hold Your Hand

I'm A Loser

Let It Be

Real Love

Revolution 1

Run For Your Life

Sexy Sadie

She's Leaving Home

The Fool On The Hill

There's A Place

While My Guitar Gently Weeps

Your Mother Should Know

It's a thankless task, but someone's going to do it...

More stuff about darts

2011-12-28T21:06:00.004Z

So it appears I've been stuck at work on a fairly eventful day. Our wonderful Wizard of Whitlock went marching on (I sounded a bit like the great Alan Hughes introducing terrified John Higgins there - and he liked a punt from all accounts, (Hughes, not Higgins, obviously) but I digress). And Betfair comically refused to pay out £23 million of imaginary money that their robot had put up by mistake. Or something.

I'm so glad that I'm such a terrible punter that I can't make a living on Betfair like so many others. I'd be permanently seething at the comedy customer service that frequently seems to come out of that place.

Elsewhere in the darts today Scott Rand let a fair few people down by losing to Colin Lloyd. It should be noted for the future though that as good as Rand is, and he should only get better, he's never won a match on tv that he's been favourite for. Here's hoping World Number one Colin Lloyd can do us a favour by knocking out Subtitles in the next round.

I'm not going to put any tips up for tomorrows games as I haven't had chance to watch much of it, and todays bets were beyond sloppy. It's great how wide open this tournament is now though with Taylor gone. Just about any of the players left could make themselves a World Champion, which is bound to bring a few nerves of it's own.

I'm over the moon with my Whitlock bet, and would love to see him bring me an £850 bonus to spend on all sorts of sordid pursuits, but I feel the man they all have to beat is James Wade. Wade's a master of mopping up Taylor-less majors, and I'd heavily fancy him in a semi final against Lewis.

If pushed for a mug acca, you could probably do worse than Painter, Wade, Chisnall, Whitlock, and Anderson at more than 3/1 with Skybet.

Quick Darts Roundup

2011-12-28T00:21:00.003Z

Well what can you say...carnage at the Ally Pally today as the two blokes that Sky plugged all day long are now on their bike. I think this means that Kim Huybrecht's girlfriend is a solid 6/4 shot for the title.

Sorry about the Tabern tip, he's clearly been swallowed up by the new echelon of darts players in the PDC. Still, the outright headline 33/1 Whitlock is looking better all the time with Taylor's exit, not that I'm expecting Sir Bruce of RP Towers to be on the blower even if he does but we can all dream.

No time for a full preview on tomorrows action I'm afraid but the advice is:

Steve Beaton 1pt @ 7/2 (SportingBet)

Jenkins v Pipe Over 5.5 Sets - 3pts @ 8/11 (BlueSq)

Just feel Beaton is a big price, particularly in what could be a long game against the "injured" Wizard. Jenkins will absolutely hate playing Pipe, the man who is single-handedly trying to destroy darts as a spectator sport and may well succeed.

Trust in the Tash

2011-12-27T17:02:00.003Z

Decent day today. We're on fire with the darts tips, that's five out of five for the World's so far. There was also joy from an each way tickle on Cappa Bleu in the Welsh National, and managed to come 3rd out of 202 in a poker tournament before some lucky clown managed to beat my AQ with his reckless J5 all-in.

Out tonight with my Aunt Sally team-mates and then working the next two days so will rush through the previews for tonight...

Kim Huybrechts v James Richardson

Not going to offer a tip for this game but I fancy the Belgian with the delightful girlfriend to win. He didn't achieve much by thrashing the hapless Brendan Dolan in the first round, but his career was already on an upward curve and he has by far the smoothest action of the two.

Everything went perfectly for Richardson against Barney. He got the crowd on his side both before and during the match, and rocked the Dutchman with some big finishes at exactly the right times.

If he can put that game behind him he obviously has a great chance of progressing, but with the danger of it being "after the Lord Mayor's show", Huybrechts is the more solid option for me.

No Bet

Phil Taylor v Dave Chisnall

Chisnall came through the "Battle of Pointless answers if the question was World Darts finalists" with Mark Dudbridge, and is a highly dangerous player. His scoring is lethal, but his doubling is ordinary at best.

Whilst there's a chance of an upset here, it's hard to imagine one, and my best mate needs a Taylor victory for a large acca so good luck to the lad (Celtic, Patriots, Ravens, Man United, Taylor)

No Bet

Paul Nicholson v Alan Tabern

Right, here we go. Nicholson is a worthy favourite for this match but there is no way he should be a 1/4 shot. All of Nicholson's best wins have come in fairly short course darts, and in the longer matches his limitations are exposed. He hasn't got the scoring power to go deep into this tournament.

Tabern is no world beater, but he's a solid enough arrowsmith, and he is a cracking bet at 100/30 with the sponsors to (hopefully) end Nicho's Premier League ambitions.

1pt Alan Tabern @ 100/30 (Ladbrokes)

Afternoon Arrers

2011-12-26T22:43:00.005Z

Well that went well didn't it? I'm not going to take anything away from Kauto Star who ran a great race, but if any other half decent jockey was on board instead of Sam Waley-Poshtwat I feel we would have seen a different result. To make the day even better I was on Binocular at 2/1 in a trixie with no other winners!

Anyway, thought I'd knock up the afternoon darts preview whilst waiting for my Falcons to run riot all over the Saints in their own back yard (yeah, right...)

Terry Jenkins v Co Stompe

Rumours are going round about Stompe having injured his throwing hand. Stompe is hugely inconsistent and can throw in some great purple patches on a good day. But Jenkins has been in good nick again this year and should be far too strong over a best of seven sets distance.

Both players overcame potentially tricky opening round matches with ease, only dropping three legs each. But Jenks had a seven point higher average, despite being on at silly o'clock with the barstaff tidying up in the background.

Terry Jenkins 3pts @ 1/2 (Coral, Hills)

Richie Burnett v John Part

It's great to see Burnett back in proper form again, whereas King John looks like he's eaten Tony Green. Burnett averaged 95 in a thriller against Mark Webster and a repeat of that sort of form should be too good for the Canadian.

But Part is at his best in an underdog capacity, and you have to wonder whether he indeed should be the outsider. These two have met seven times before and KJP has won all seven meetings. He's also won the World title on this very stage, and is well worth a few quid to keep the 2012 dream alive. You'd also like to think he won't be too pissed at a quarter to three in the afternoon.

John Part 1pt @ 11/10 (General)

Andy Hamilton v Vincent Van Der Voort

Hamilton is one of these average players that thinks he's better than he is, but I was impressed with his first round triumph. Young Alcinas hit him with everything and would have been victorious against most players, but Hamilton kept himself in the game and took out some big outshots when it mattered most, averaging 97 in the process.

He's also got the pedigree of having gone deep in a few of these TV majors, but if any of these two have hopes of getting much further they need Mr Chisnall to do them a favour.

Rapid fire dartist VDV seems a decent bloke who has had some problems away from the oche this year that have affected his game. I was not expecting him to beat Mark Hylton in the first round, but he did the job in style, with a 95 average.

You would expect this to be a close affair, with the winner being the one that can finish more economically.

No Bet

We're the young generation, and we've got something to say

2011-12-25T10:21:00.002Z

Merry Christmas readers, and I hope you've got everything you wished for. Christmas used to be all about the presents for me as a youngster, but whilst it's great to have heavily topped up the Neil Young and Pink Floyd album collections this morning, the recent years have meant three things: The King George is tomorrow, the darts is back on in a days time, and Cheltenham is now right on the horizon.

We're going great with the darts bets on here (and there is plenty more to come), and all you need to know about Cheltenham for now is that Peddlers Cross wins the Arkle, but the King George is the big one for me right now.

I honestly believe that Long Run is an absolute shoo-in for tomorrows Kempton feature. I've been backing it with the odd £40 or £50 loads of times over the last couple of months from all rates down from 7/4 to 11/8.

The exciting thing is I have no idea how much I've had on the horse or indeed who with. I know the overall return will be well into four figures, but it will be great fun to log into, say, Boylesports in April and find £110 in there.

We all know what a fiddling so and so Nicky Henderson is, and he was never going to be properly tuned up for the Betfair Chase. It was Kauto Star's cup final, yet still only lost by a few lengths amidst several jumping errors.

With the eight runners the race is great for each way punters and you can do a lot worse than back Nacarat each way at 66/1. There's doubts about several of the runners (Master Minded wouldn't stay three miles in a taxi etc.), and Nacarat could bowl along in front and grab a place.

I'll be back on the 27th with a full preview of all the other second round matches at the Ally Pally.

Darts

2011-12-22T15:35:00.006Z

Well I must admit on being wrong. After regularly saying that the World Darts Championship is third in the pecking order for me behind the Matchplay and Grand Slam, the first round of this tournament has been almost universally accepted as being brilliant.

There are a couple of points I would make though. I'm not totally sold on the need for the eight prelimary matches. It's hugely unfair on the seeded players to have to play a man who has already had half an hour on the big stage that night, at gone eleven o'clock. And talk of average journeymen Newton and Nicholson being mentioned for premier league spots ahead of genuine class acts Whitlock and Webster makes me want to physically thump my tv screen.

But the second round starts tonight, and I'll do a little preview and suggest a few bets on the matches taking place before Christmas. Please take all betting advice with a pinch of salt as I haven't been able to watch as much of the action as I'd have liked to.

Wayne Jones v Roland Scholten

Scholten made a successful comeback to big time darts, but the fact that he only dropped one set against Jamie Caven despite averaging only 83 says more about Caven than anything else. Jones did a professional late night job on the prelim guy, averaging 94.49 despite missing 24 darts at a double.

First match on, Wayne will be in his peak "six pint zone" for this match and should dispatch the Dutchman with ease. I wouldn't put anybody off lumping on at 4/11, but I'll have a little bet on the handicap instead.

Jones -1.5 sets - 2pts @ 4/6 (General)

Adrian Lewis v Robert Thornton

Lewis, along with Gary Anderson can consider themselves extremely lucky to still be in the tournament. His nonchalant shrug of the shoulders after hitting the winning double against Nigel Heydon as if to say "I was never in any trouble" was pitiful to say the least, and not the actions of a world champion in my opinion.

But whilst Anderson will get found out very shortly against better opposition because he simply can't hit doubles, Lewis has every chance to improve in the softer half of the draw, starting tonight.

Thornton played quite well to beat Ian White (who many people were tipping for the win) in the first round, but he'll have to be at his very best to win this. Lewis beat Thornton 4-1 in this event last year and a similar scoreline looks on the cards.

No Bet

Wes Newton v Justin Pipe

Pipe is outstanding in the floor tournaments, and has improved on television in the last year, but he's still a long way from being "the force". He literally threw the game away against Webster in Doncaster.

Newton is on the verge of being overrated, but he's a tidy player these days and what I like about him is that his head doesn't drop when he's losing.

However, this match is likely to be a tight affair, and given the fact that if this was taking place in my garage Pipe would be a slight favourite, the 12/5 on offer with the sponsors must be worth a small interest.

0.5 pts Justin Pipe @ 12/5 with Ladbrokes

Kevin Painter v Mark Walsh

The shrewdies are on Painter outright at 150/1 and he has a real chance of going deep in this tournament. He's been a different player since his laser eye surgery, and looks to be full of confidence after his maiden TV title. A 96 average, six maximums, and a 58% checkout percentage never gave young Monk a chance in the first round.

A repeat of that sort of form will be too much for Walsh, who will average in the low nineties almost every time out. Painter is absolutely buzzing, and I'm amazed he's not a shorter price for this one.

2pts Kevin Painter @ 4/5 with Stan James

James Wade v Jelle Klaasen

Wade very nearly let boredom get the better of him in his opener and could of come a cropper. But the fact of the matter is he should get through to the final from the bottom half, so he'll be highly motivated for this tournament. Boredom certainly won't be on the agenda tonight against the rapid fire Dutchman.

Klaasen has always been underrated ever since winning the BDO title, and it was no surprise to me to see him beat White in the first round. He's also a player that seems to bring his best form to the TV events, it's just that he doesn't seem to be in that many of them anymore.

On the form of the first round Wade should never be as short as 1/7, but given the head to head records (Wade has won the last 13 encounters), and the almost guaranteed improvement in his game, it should be a comfy enough win for "The Machine".

No Bet

Steve Farmer v Kevin Munch

Turn over to ITV4 and watch Rocky V, a stunning tale of Rocky Balboa taking a young fighter "Tommy Gunn" under his wing. Or why not pop round the neighbours for a sherry and some Christmas cheer instead?

No Bet

The last few days

2011-12-18T11:45:00.007Z

Thursday:

So the Darts started, and although I wasn't able to watch it live, twitter allowed me to keep track of what was occurring on what sounded like an incredible opening night.

Unfortunately I lost a few quid on our old mate Jamie Caven, a man I have constantly slated on here as being rubbish. So why back him at 8/13? He was playing Roland Scholten, a man I couldn't back with stolen money, especially after a few years in the darting wilderness. If "Jabba" couldn't win this contest, then it really would be time to stop calling himself a professional dart player.

Long time readers will be aware that Roland Scholten was a catalyst in my gambling downfall, costing me a £2k+ acca return and a perfectly good television by losing from 7-3 up in a first to 9 match at the UK Open once.

Things didn't get any better with outright pick Mark Webster losing to Richie Burnett in a high quality match featuring twenty 180's. Look on the bright side though, the hugely talented Welshman should continue to fly under the radar and will make us a lot of money in 2012, that I guarantee.

Friday:

Gave myself a talking to for backing a mug at odds on and vowed not to have any more darts bets until Simon Whitlock gets eliminated (I have £25 at 33/1 on the awesome Aussie).

Whilst on my daily two mile power walk down the Cowley Road in the evening, I noticed that Babybird (of "You're Gorgeous" fame) is playing opposite my shop in the near future. Wondered whether it would be worth buying a ticket to try and get everyone to sing "You're gormless" during the chorus. Decided it probably wasn't.

Saturday:

An enjoyable day, albeit of mixed fortunes. I love working Saturday's, there's a real buzz about the shop, and between them the punters will have a strong opinion about every horse running in the big handicaps of the day.

I've never really got all the fuss about Big Bucks. To me, it won a high quality race at the Festival a few years back (myself and friend Neal were cheering him home at 5/1) but hasn't appeared to beat all that much of note since.

However my opinion changed yesterday when the horse looked bang in trouble, yet not only did he end up winning, he ended up winning by a considerable distance. It's very hard to see this horse getting beaten at the festival, as best odds of 4/6 would suggest.

If I hadn't have had a bet yesterday I'd have been rolling in it. The £20 football bet I posted on here was never looking good, and the £15 lucky 15 horsie arrow returned a meagre £1.13, which was soon lost on Trap 1 in the 5.54 at Newcastle. The Saturday 49's bet made about a £10 loss, whilst the Irish Lottery investment made about a £3 loss.

Another Ayrton Senna was done on the chirpy and busty Chelsee Healey to win the Wonderful Dave Arch trophy at 11/4. With no evening racing on, I was able to stick it on one of the screens, and watched with interest, as everything seemed to be going well (on last, sob story etc.), only for Harry Judd to get the frustrated bored housewife vote and waltz away with it. Still, at least I was able to reserrect my "went up Chelsea the other night" joke that Frank Skinner used to use all the time circa 1994.

However, the punters were full of Christmas cheer, and I made £43 in tips. I also won £20 in the free roulette tournament going on over the road at Ladbrokes. I've, shall we say, made friends lately with the girl who works in there and she happened to be managing the shop yesterday, so it was a real stroke of luck for me to win that tournament...

Getting home just in time to see Paul Nicholson make a complete cock of himself solely to book a premier league place, and with two days off on the trot, it was an ideal night to stay up and watch the boxing/NFL.

Believe me, my boss is as shrewd as they come, and when he goes best price on a British boxer, that fight is as good as over. We took absolutely floods of cash on David Haye a few months ago, and when we were happily laying Carl Froch at an industry best 11/4, I knew there was only one way this fight was going.

2/7 shots aren't for the working man though, so I placed a £20 treble on Ward to beat Froch, Brendan Dolan to beat Kim Huybrechts, and Dave Chisnall to beat Mark Dudbridge. Returns £72.

Sunday:

Cracking day of live sport today, but no bets, aside from the above treble. Having backed Manchester United for the league and being an Arsenal fan, then a United/Arsenal double would be just about as good as it gets.

Tonight sees my long awaited return to the hardest poker game in town (town being a metaphor for "anywhere in the world", as opposed to the town of Witney), the £10 freezeout at The Three Pigeons.

Due to either working or sleeping virtually all of the time, I haven't played poker either live or online for months, so just being able to remember the rules will be a bonus.

Overs and Out

2011-12-16T23:09:00.002Z

No time for a proper update, but I'll be back on Sunday with a few thoughts on the darts and other stuff. I think I've sniffed out a value bet on the footy this weekend and have backed it with confidence.

I need over 2.5 goals in all three of the following games:

Blackburn v West Brom
Wigan v Chelsea
West Ham v Barnsley

The treble pays a decent looking 4.85 with Bet365, Betfred, and Stan James.

PDC World Championships 2012

2011-12-14T11:18:00.004Z

In a "darts tournaments are like buses" situation, just days after the Players Championship the Worlds start tomorrow. The schedule desperately needs looking at. You've got three majors in the space of a month and then nothing until June.

Please don't mention the Premier League. With the same eight players that gets boring after three weeks and it will be even worse this year if they stick Newton and Nicholson in it, the only points they will get are against each other.

The obvious starting point when looking for the winner is Phil Taylor. Ladbrokes go evens but he's odds on everywhere else. I won't be backing him at that price, or even recommending him as a bet on here at that price, but he is by far the likeliest winner, so I wouldn't want to put anybody off.

It's all very well for me to say Adrian Lewis is the worst World Champion ever (he is), but at first glance he is in the best half of the draw, having avoided Taylor, Anderson, Barney, and Whitlock. But dig a little deeper and there are more than enough dangerous players lurking in the bottom half.

Lewis' opener against talented Nigel Heydon is far from a gimme, and with the likes of Webster, Jenkins, Wade, Newton also in the bottom half, I'd be wanting at least double figure odds on Jackpot repeating, and he's only 8/1.

The main bet for us this year is going to be a man that win, lose, or draw is massively overpriced and that's Simon Whitlock at 33/1. I strongly believe in horses for courses in these PDC majors, and Whitlock has been my main fancy for this event since February. He was about a 12/1 shot back then, but due to a combination of some disappointing TV performances, and missing the last couple of months with injury, we've got a huge double carpet about the Aussies chances.

We're taking an awful lot on trust with regard to his injuries, but he's been given every chance by not playing until December 21st. Don't forget this is the man who completely blitzed through the field in 2010, and only an inspired Taylor could stop him in what was the best final, quality wise, ever.

He should be able to get through to the Quarter Finals where a showdown with the increasingly fragile Gary Anderson might lay in wait. The big test would of course be a possible showdown with The Power in the semis. For this reason there is no point betting him each way, just take the 33/1 and lay off before a final he would be odds on in if he could reach it.

The other tip will come from the bottom half, and not surprisingly, I've once again opted for the admirable Mark Webster at 28/1. It was a toss up between Webster and Wade (they are due to meet in the Quarter Finals), but at almost three times the price, it's a no-brainer.

Wade could very well turn up in the right mood and win the tournament, but he looks a player that you have to catch right, and three weeks is a long time to stay right. Webster on the other hand is an ultra consistent solid performer. His scoring is good enough to match the best, but the worry is he appears to get the shakes on the doubles at times. If he can hit 40% of his doubles, he has a chance of reaching the final.

2012 PDC World Championship Advice:
Simon Whitlock - 2pts win @ 33/1 (Ladbrokes, BlueSq, Paddy)
Mark Webster - 0.5 pts e/w@ 28/1 (Betfred, Boyles, Ladbrokes, Stan James)
Whitlock v Webster Final - 0.25 pts @ 175/1 (Paddy Power)

Weekend Review

2011-12-11T23:08:00.003Z

What a great weekend it's been on almost every level. I couldn't believe the email I received on the way to work on Saturday morning. Stan James were refunding all losing bets (up to £50) on the International Hurdle at Cheltenham if you bet on your mobile. Well I strongly fancied Grandouet to win the race so stuck £50 on, my assistant manager did the same, and we cheered it home like mentalists.

Saturday night was a lot of fun, so much so that I can't remember much about it, and find out this morning that one of my colleagues has a broken arm from the revelry. We drank all sorts of stuff, and god knows how I managed to navigate my way to the bus stop to get the last bus home (3.15am) and get home with no damage or loss to wallet, keys, phone.

Wasn't good for much today but the only thing that needed doing was changing the channel from the snooker to the darts to the footy to the NFL and to the X factor. A highly enjoyable day of sport, the snooker in particular being of the highest standard. It's a shame Mark Webster couldn't win the darts, but the 20/1 each way recommendation on here led to an overall profit on the tournament of 8.78 points which isn't too shabby.

I'm not going to moan about the X Factor because I unashamedly love Little Mix and feel that gay scouse hairdressers add very little to society. But what a fix that show was tonight. It was a two hour Little Mix love-in, with the show making no secret at all of who people should vote for. The only surprising thing is that Dermot didn't have their phone number sewn onto his suit.

Chelsea v Man City tomorrow and the way my soccerball predictions have gone this week I should stay well away. I may just get tempted though by the repeat of Bet365's great offer, where if you bet £50 before the off you can get a free £50 bet in running. We'll see.

Keep up by backing 6/5 Jones

2011-12-09T22:42:00.004Z

A fine and enjoyable day today. For some reason a Cheltenham race meeting makes me bet like a headless chicken, and after the reverses of Sam Winner and Mon Parrain I was beginning to stare down a deep punting abyss. But after the miraculous farce of Garde Champetre luckily winning the Cross Country (not to mention the huge 6/1 SP), and McCoy getting Darlan up on the line I ended up making £30 profit, enough to do a few silly £5 lines on the footy tomorrow.

It's also going well on the darts betting front. That's three winning tips out of three on here all at decent prices, and both our ante-post picks still standing with original odds greatly slashed.

Very much looking forward to tomorrow night as it's our "works do". What this entails is myself, my staff, and the regular punters that aren't boring bastards trawling the vibrant Cowley Road streets en masse in search of ale. The aim is to get drunk, but not too drunk that I tell them the "Vodafone Top-Up Card story". A highly embarrassing tale that (hopefully) only four people in the world know about and the longer it stays that way the better.

Another eclectic mix of songs from the great contributors this week. We're now up to No.7 on the Smiths countdown, meaning only six more weeks before "There Is A Light..." gets unveiled in top spot. Due to being busy at the snooker in York this week, I've entered Mrs. Snookerbackers zone this week and selected a song for her. Young Jez was on the receiving end of a final written warning for selecting a Simply Red song, but that was swiftly changed.

No "official" footy tips from me this week as it all looks a bit trappy. I would say that Bolton and Manchester City look to be overpriced, and if I've got a few quid left from tomorrow's festivities (there's a high chance of shoot pontoon at some point) I'll probably end up backing Spurs at odds against as well.

The arrers becomes best of 15 legs for the next round, and it's fingers crossed that our man Peter Wright can get past Wes Newton. If he can (and believe me, he can) then the 100/1 shot has a very real chance of getting to the final.

Scott Rand played very well for us the other night and should probably not be 4/1 against Barney who can turn up and play brilliant or rubbish. That could well be a good trade, but the only bet I'm recommending is a small interest on Wayne Jones to beat Mark Walsh. Walsh seems to be getting more comfortable on television, but I'm not sure he's up to Jones' calibre.

Advice:

Wayne Jones to beat Mark Walsh - 1pt @ 6/5 (BlueSq, Ladbrokes)

Players Championship Darts - Night Two

2011-12-08T21:38:00.004Z

A great night of darts if you follow this blogs tips, with Scott Rand thrashing the hapless Jamie Caven, and Barney hitting ton-eighties for fun in a 6-3 win against Ronnie Baxter averaging 105 in the process. Not only that, but our 100/1 outright selection Peter Wright won in a ton plus average.

But I can't help feeling the nights action would have been a huge turn off for any casual viewer. The crowd was sparse, and the place was devoid of any atmosphere, although it was amusing when some bloke shouted "5" with Richie Burnett seemingly having no clue how to check out 13 with two darts left.

Matt Smith, the man who recently said proper snooker was all a bit fuddy-duddy, couldn't hide his displeasure at having to be there. Rather than make the opening night atmosphere seem electric, like the Sky boys would and have done many times, the commentators all seemed as dead as the crowd, despite the action being of a perfectly decent standard.

With not many tickets sold for tomorrow either, they really should let Mace The Ace loose on a few pints of Stella before they go on air. Now that would be worth watching...

Friday night's games all look to be priced up correctly, but there's one bet that I have had, and that's over 4.5 maxes in the Dave Chisnall v Alan Tabern game. Chisnall is probably the 2nd best scorer in the game, he could quite easily hit more than four himself, but Tabern is a talented player that can play to a high standard, especially in a fast paced game which this is sure to be.

Chisnall v Tabern Over 4.5 180's - 1pt @ 13/10 (Boylesports)

Don't miss tomorrow night's post, because Fouldsy's song of the week is not only brilliant, but also featured in my very own Top 100 songs of all time on this blog in May 2008.

Players Championship Darts - Day One

2011-12-08T11:08:00.002Z

You obviously have to tread carefully when backing in these best of 11 contests. The bull-off on the practice board is a lot more important than usual, and more upsets will happen over the shorter format. But they make for fantastic television, just like their snooker counterparts. People could happily watch Ronnie O'Sullivan play Judd Trump all day, but do we really want to see the likes of Rory McLeod and Justin Pipe play a long first round match? No.

The one bet that leaps out tonight is Scott Rand to beat Jamie Caven in the opener. The ability to lay Caven at odds-on is the gift that keeps on giving. He's a terrible player, at least in front of the cameras, and his opponent could well be a dark horse.

We've seen Rand twice on TV. He lost to Steve Beaton in the UK Open despite trading at very long odds on, and then played Wayne Jones at the Matchplay. "Cool Hand" started well in that match but faded as the long match went on. A repeat of the first eight legs of either of those matches will see him safely in the winners interview area.

The other price that you don't see very often is 4/7 for Raymond Barneveld to beat Ronnie Baxter. Barney seems to have been on a slide for ages, and was awful in the Grand Slam, but he maintains far too much natural ability to be playing that bad for long. After a decent 2009, Baxter hasn't done much of late, and it would be a surprise to see the favourite lose.

Rand to beat Caven - 2pts @ 13/10 (188 Bet)
Barney to beat Baxter - 2pts @ 4/7 (Paddy Power, Skybet)

Players Championship Darts

2011-12-07T22:43:00.007Z

Well It's been a shithouse of a few days. Ronnie O'Sullivan crashes out of the UK Open 6-5 to probably the only player capable of beating him after trading shorter than 1/10 in running, I don't bother backing Fulham, Olympiakos, or Chelsea despite strongly fancying them all, I do back Manchester United at 4/6 who play like a mid table side, and somebody photoshops a picture of my face on a blog I won't publicise to make me look like a raging homosexual.

But never fear - darts is here. It's the Players Championship this weekend on ITV4, and the channels darts people must be seething. They used to have this tournament and the highly prestigious Grand Slam, which was swiftly whisked away by Sky.

Not only that though, this used to be a hugely interesting tournament when held at the end of January - the dust had settled after the World Championships, and it was a big event for certain players to get back on or maintain their game after the Worlds and before the upcoming Premier League. Now it's placed a couple of weeks before the Worlds and will largely be written out of darting history - especially if Phil Taylor doesn't win it.

I'm also intrigued to see Chris Mason commentating again. I used to idolise "Mace The Ace", but having followed him since his comeback on twitter, he's come over as an incredibly bitter

individual, but hilarious to follow nonetheless. It's great when he comes back from the pub and starts calling celebs by the dozen the "C" word. Do ITV bosses monitor twitter I wonder? Or is darts so far down the pecking order that they don't even know they are covering it?

The last couple of paragraphs may sound like I'm putting a downer on this tournament but that couldn't be further from the truth. I'm really looking forward to it (we'll be able to watch it at work which is a bonus), and the qualifying process means that quite simply, the best 32 players from the Players Championship events of THIS year are playing in it. And yes, that means no room for the out of form Adrian Lewis, a man who will go down in history as the worst World Champion of all time.

The easiest place to look for the winner is of course Phil Taylor. Since officially splitting from his wife he's been better than ever, and in fact the standard of the other top players has dropped. The Power is back to his best and won the Grand Slam with ease, but whilst you can never write him off, there are plenty of grounds to oppose him this weekend.

Taylor is obsessed with money, he mentions it in almost every interview. But after pocketing £100,000 from Wolverhampton, he'll be 100% focused on the £200k first prize at the Ally Pally, and whilst he'll of course be trying, this is "only" £60k to the winner after all. That, combined with the short format, definite banana skin Terry Jenkins in the first round, and also in the same half as the next two in the betting Gary Anderson and James Wade, odds-on quotes make no appeal at all.

It's going to take a monumental effort to get through to the final from the bottom half, so we'll go with a couple of players each way at longer odds from the much easier top half. Mark Webster is the first name on my list. Webby has a fantastic strike rate at beating players around or below him in the rankings, and while it may take him a bit longer to compete on a regular basis against the top six players, he will very rarely let you down at odds on. If he gets past the respected Steve Beaton in the first round, I can see him going all the way to the final.

And I'm going for a "66/1 Nicholson as tipped up on this very blog" type arrow here, but let's have a few quid on Peter "Snakebite" Wright as well. I gave this guy some stick in the past and never thought he would make it on TV, but he's been highly impressive in both winning and losing efforts over the last year, coming a gnats chuff away from knocking Taylor himself out in Dublin. If it goes by seeding his route to the final would be Ovens, Newton, Part, Pipe. Does that make him value at 100/1? Big time in my opinion.

First Round matches preview will be up by Thursday afternoon.

Outright Bets:

Mark Webster - 1pt e/w at 20/1 (Stan James)

Peter Wright - 0.5 pts e/w at 100/1 (General)

Mean Streets and Fixed Roulette Wheels

2011-12-04T09:59:00.002Z

I write this on Sunday morning after a couple of vastly differing days. After arriving in Brighton on Friday I instantly embarked on a trek into town. After a three hour train journey I was dying for a pint, so after walking about a mile I eventually found what looked a suitable pub - The Wetherspoons down West Street.

I had one in there, one in Yate's opposite, and a bet in Ladbrokes which won. I then went for a walk round the town and ended up in another Ladbrokes to collect. Brighton has no shortages of Ladbrokes shops. I've been in seven already so I'm guessing they are into double figures.

Anyway the cashier looked at me and said "Oh, you've been down West Street then...". Me, oblivious to what the question/statement meant asked him and all he said was how it's quite lively down there. Whilst I was back down West Street to watch the Euro Draw, I did some rudimentary googling, and it turns out it's a place to avoid if possible!

Anyway to cut a long story short I wound up at the Grosvenor, about an hour before the poker tournament started, already well aled, and after making a tenner on some new Texas Hold-Em table game, I made the mistake of catching sight of the roulette table. There had been three reds on the trot so I stormed in with £20 on Black.

All I need to tell you is that there ended up being twelve reds on the trot, and my wallet was naturally empty. After a brief chat with the floor manager telling him what a joke his roulette wheel was, it was back to the hotel.

Yesterday was much better though. After a stern talking to myself, I decided to have either tiny stakes or no bets at all on the horses (I was already sat on a 10/1 Kauto Stone bet after all), and instead try and pick out a decent footy acca that would bring home the bacon.

I settled on Man City, Tottenham, MK Dons, and Bristol Rovers. The first three have all done the business, so as long as Bristol Rovers can beat the mighty AFC Totton today, £150 will be whizzing into my account.

But it was even better, as in the end, along with Kauto Stone getting placed, I had three horse bets. One of them, a fiver on Hello Bud at 9/1 was looking home for all money until it fell, but the other two both won. £5 win on Ubi Ace at 7/1, and £7.50 each way on Stewarts House at 11/2.

Today I'm going to be out most of the day, but keeping a keen eye on the Bristol Rovers game, and Ronnie against Steve Davis in the snooker. I've backed The Rocket to win a touch under £1,200, so looking for him to be in good nick today. After that it's back to the hotel in time for the NFL games.

5 and 9, The Brighton Line

2011-12-01T22:34:00.004Z

I'm off to Brighton first thing in the morning. The train journey should whizz by thanks to the newly downloaded audiobook "I, Partridge: We Need To Talk About Alan". Yes, I'm going to be one of those annoying people on a train that start laughing out loud at random moments.

I will try and blog as much of the weekend action as possible but in case I don't get to put the Saturday tips up, brace yourself for plenty of after-timing. I have had two bets already and they are:

Kauto Stone in the Tingle Creek: 10/1 each way with Paddy Power

This horse looked like it could be very special when it ran a fortnight ago, and 10/1 looked huge each way value in a race where I can't be having Sizing Europe at all. The 10/1 has long gone and 6/1 is now top of the shop. You can't eat value though, so fingers crossed for a big run.

Ronnie O'Sullivan to win UK Championship: 7/1 with Betfred (or 13/2 elsewhere...)

"You always tip Ronnie" I hear you cry in unison. That's not strictly true. I always tip him for the novelty events, that's because he always either wins them or trades at odds on at some stage without fail.

I would never dream of backing The Rocket for the World Championships in it's current format. 17 days in Sheffield is enough for the most hardy of souls, let alone as fragile a character as this guy.

But the shortening of the UK Championships plays right into his hands, and he appears to be far more mature about snooker this year, and has openly targeted the prestigious BBC events. That's more than enough for me. 7/1 is massive value.

So off we go. Poker to be played, money to be made, ale to be consumed, and pubs with rainbow flags to be avoided (not that there's anything wrong with that).

Brighton Calling

2011-11-28T13:29:00.004Z

Exciting times friends, as this weekend sees the blogs tour of Great Britain stop off at Brighton, home of six casinos, the 1974 Eurovision Song Contest, and gayers. I'll only be partaking in one of those activities though, namely the £25 freezeout at the Grosvenor.

I'm there between Friday and Monday for a well deserved bit of sea air, and hopefully some profit can be eked out from the weekend sporting action (which from first glance doesn't look all that great). This will mean I'll need the song selections in by Thursday this week chaps.

A fine twitter coup was landed last night, as I dared Channel 4 NFL analyst Mike Carlson to slip in "External Occipital Protuberance", a phrase that Gorilla Monsoon used on every single WWF Pay Per View from 1986-1994.

Knowing Mike's a top bloke and keen Pro Wrestling historian, I knew he'd be up for the challenge, but I was amazed when he actually came out with it at the end of the third quarter! I've watched it back a few times and the look on Presenter Danny Kelly's face was a picture of bemusement, even more so than when they talk about American Football...

NFL Week 12

2011-11-26T22:40:00.004Z

A bostin day today, as Barry Taylor, former West Bromwich & District Table Tennis League Mixed Pairs Runner-Up might say. The main bet on Stoke came in with ease, but I also felt 7/2 Overturn was too big this morning and had a piece of that, along with a sixty note pickup on the 49's.

I play the 49's every (and only on) Saturday, usually a 10p Lucky 63 on both draws. Had three numbers out of the first four drawn so was dreaming of a few grand, but the return was nice anyway. Also had a few quid on Ding to beat Trump in the snooker (personally think young Judd has a lot more to prove before he should start odds on against the top dogs). In fact the only losses were QPR and Wymott, both bets placed several days ago so it was one way traffic in the skyrocket today for a much needed change.

It's a huge day for my NFL bets tomorrow. I've backed the Falcons to win the Superbowl to win about £1500, but I've also got them in a double with Alabama (who are odds on now) to win another bag and a bit of sand. I'm not getting excited by any means, as they will more than likely get blitzed in the play-offs anyway, but a win for them and a loss for the Bears would make the play-offs a very realistic prospect.

I've had a few pennies for fun on the following acca tomorrow, all on the money line:

Bears to beat Raiders @ 29/20

Seahawks to beat Redskins @ 10/17

Eagles to beat Patriots @ 29/20

Chargers to beat Broncos @ 5/12

5/6 Stoke To Give Rovers A Roasting

2011-11-24T14:29:00.010Z

Nice little treble up on the NFL last night, with only the Cowboys making me sweat a bit. I haven't seen much of the Eagles this season, but they must be terrible to not be top of that division. Oh, and Cecil Martin devouring that Turkey leg with reckless abandon is an image that will haunt me for some time.

It's Hennessy Gold Cup day tomorrow, which brings back memories of Denman absolutely trouncing the field a few years back in one of the best weight carrying performances I've ever seen. There's nothing of that calibre running this year of course, but it would be nice if Wymott could win, as I had a few quid at 8/1 earlier in the week.

A couple of bets I like on the footy this week, the main one being Stoke at 5/6 home to Blackburn. Stoke have underperformed massively of late, but with no Europa League distractions this week, this looks like a great opportunity for three points. Rovers are gaining a few plaudits for the way they are playing, but they've still only got seven points, and would be rooted to the bottom if not for a 99th minute equaliser last week.

My other bet for smaller stakes is QPR at a tempting 5/2 with Victor Chandler away to Norwich. Playing away is clearly no problem for the super hoops as they have gained 60% of their points away from Shepherds Bush. Norwich started well, but the bubble appears to have burst, and there will be several league places between these two sides at the end of the season.

X Factor starts to get interesting now with the deadwood having all gone, and the wannabes now singing twice each night. I explained my reasons for backing Janet to win the show the other day, and that fan support will be crucial this weekend, because if she's in the bottom two this week, there's every chance she's a goner. However I can't see any other combo than Misha and Amelia in the bottom two this week, a very tempting 7/4 shot with Betfred.

Today sees a new era in the blogs history and an exciting shake-up in the weekly musical contributions. I'd like to extend a huge welcome to not only a genuine and bona fide sporting legend, but a thoroughly good egg to boot - none other than former World No.3 Snooker player and current BBC commentator Neal Foulds! Neal, who likes music and enjoys a punt, the two cornerstones of this very publication, will be providing his song of the week every Friday night.

2012 will also see a couple of exciting new features. Ron is working hard as we speak on his Top 52 Beatles songs (a thankless task indeed), which will replace 2011's Crosby/Stills/Nash/Young song of the week. And the Old Time Classic will also be changed in the new year.

You could get a million Beatles fans and I doubt any of them would have the same 52 tracks, let alone anywhere near the same order. There's already been a few accas sunk with the revelation that "Yesterday" won't be featuring in the lineup.

Thanksgiving NFL Triple Header

2011-11-24T13:19:00.004Z

Happy Thanksgiving folks! I'm off for an American Style Burger & Fries at the local Hungry Horse to get into the spirit of things (Roast Turkey with all the trimmings and Pumpkin Pie for dessert was just too much hassle). But of course what Thanksgiving really means these days is a Triple Header of NFL baw games. I've never quite understood why two of these games should always feature Detroit and Dallas, but at least the Lions are slightly more competitive these days. I've wrangled a day off today and a late start tomorrow, so let's get it on.

For all your NFL tips you really should visit friend of the blog Ron on his excellent site www.kjbetting.blogspot.com As he explains, the Green Bay v Detroit game is on FOX, which means the players will all be up for winning the Galloping Gobbler, and I'm not referring to Joe Buck. It's the annual award for the player of the game, and Coral are even betting on this years recipient.

Aaron Rodgers is favourite not surprisingly, but 1/2 is on the short side for what would be an extremely obvious choice, and his form has dipped ever so slightly over the past few weeks. I'd much rather take a chance on Lions RB Kevin Smith at 16/1, on the off chance that they win it with the ground game.

I've just done the three favourites to win tonight. A Green Bay, Dallas, and Baltimore treble pays 2/1 with William Hill, and think only the late game could have us genuinely sweating on that.

There is HUGE news coming on tomorrow night's update! Some of you might know some of it, but I guarantee you don't know all of it... 11.30pm, be there.

Christmas comes early with 7/4 Long Run quote

2011-11-21T14:56:00.005Z

Fear not readers, you'll never see another Soccerball tip on here from me. My insistence to anybody that would listen that Chelsea would destroy the bang average Liverpool yesterday has made me a figure of ridicule, not for the first time this season.

The trouble is I never get to watch Premier League games anymore due to being at work all the time, so I'm basing any opinions I may have on long term theories, such as Andre Villas Boas being a great manager that will soon turn Chelsea into the force of old, and Liverpool being a mediocre bunch, with Charlie Adam possibily being the most overrated footballer of all time.

But that's clearly not good enough. My theories are obviously wrong. For all I know, the previously rock solid Chelsea defence could now be a laughing stock, and midfield maestro Charlie Adam could be on the shortlist for next years Balloon D'Or award.

I'm not complaining mind. Earning plenty of cash whilst chatting to like minded people about sport all day more than compensates for not being able to watch a few football matches, but the tips on here will be much less "Team A will absolutely hammer Team B", and much more "I've had a £5 double on this...".

I didn't get to see any of the sport this weekend, but Twitter is a marvellous medium of keeping in touch with it all. I follow some cracking people that are usually spot on with both the news of what's happening, and more detailed analysis, with plenty of amusing wisecracks for good measure.

It sounds like Phil Taylor was right back to his best at the Grand Slam, with Dreamboy possibly being hauled into the stewards room, certainly not for the first time. And it sounds like Power Snooker was absolutely shite.

The snooker people I follow are obviously die hard fans of, erm... Snooker, so were never going to enjoy a gimmicked up version of the game. But it makes you wonder who the format is actually aimed at? I mean, would Premier League footballers playing Subbuteo against each other make for great interest or good tv?

The one thing I do get to watch plenty of though is Horse Racing, and there wasn't a dry eye in my shop when Kauto Star rolled back the years in the Betfair Chase on Saturday. At least not until thirty seconds later when they all rushed to get a bet on the 3.53 at Portman Park.

Whilst there were a couple of jumping concerns, I'm more convinced than ever that Long Run will win the King George on Boxing Day, and have slapped £40 on at 7/4 (it was going to be another zero but there's plenty of time for that). Long Run was clearly not primed for the day, Kauto was, but there still wasn't much in it, and they beat the rest quite convincingly. You're always taking chances on Ante-Post markets, but if he gets to Kempton in good order, there surely won't be many odds against quotes on the day.

I've also dipped my toe into the X-Factor market with £20 on Janet Devlin at 4/1. I can't stand Janet Devlin, I think she's predictable and dull as dishwater, but the fact that despite some awfully lame performances she hasn't been in a sing-off confirms the belief that a whole nation of paddies are picking up the phone to vote for her. Her shy image will continue to get votes, and now that it's two songs a night, she should get one of the songs tailored to her strengths, and should get to the final, where it's quite simply most votes wins.

My personal guilty pleasures are Little Mix. I find it amazing that such a munter as Jessie could get into a group like this, but they can certainly sing. Their powerful rendition of En Vogue's "Don't Let Go" on Saturday was the highlight of the season for me so far.

Snookerbacker has started his Top Ten rundown of Smiths/Morrissey songs, and this blogs well known love of Top Ten lists sees it get pride of place at the top of the weekly song listings. It's all to play for, but if "There Is A Light That Never Goes Out" isn't No.1, this blog will riot.

Chelsea to give Kenny the Blues

2011-11-18T23:08:00.003Z

Sorry folks no time for the usual write-up tonight (blame the arsehole of a driver of the No.1 bus who shut the door in my face when it was clear I was getting on), so just a couple of token tips:

It's reality check week for Liverpool whose limitations will be ruthlessly exposed by a Chelsea side for whom the International break came at a good time. The Blues will be far too strong and 10/11 is a blinding price.

But surely nobody will care about Premier League Football what with the juggernaut that is Power Snooker on ITV4 will they? Umm...well maybe they will, but no need to watch the snooker anyway, just lump on Ronnie in any event where the rules have been gimmicked up. 4/1? Yes please.

Cheltenham

2011-11-17T11:22:00.005Z

So we set off for Cheltenham last Saturday for Paddy Power Gold Cup day. After the obligatory stamina building fry up, we left around 11.30 and were there in bags of time. Neal is a bona fide Cheltenham veteran now, and no more of this walking two miles up Cleeve Hill pretending you're Charlie Swan kicking for home on Istabraq after a particularly steep bit. No, he pops the car straight into the Pittville pump rooms car park, and within minutes we're at the home of racing.

This was the very first time out of about forty visits that I hadn't gone in the Best Mate enclosure (the cheap bit), so we queued up for Tattersalls tickets when a lovely gentleman who had bought one or two more tickets than he needed said he would sell us one each for £20, saving a fiver. Never ones to look gift horses in mouths, we duly obliged, and we became Mr John McGinty for the day.

It was a trappy days racing, but the one thing we had agreed on was that Hinterland was the one to be on in the opener. Paul Nicholls charge was in the parade ring much sooner than the others and looked a smart beast. He started to get a bit excited and confidence dipped for a bit, but he was soon back looking calm and composed and we legged it to the bookies to snatch some of the remaining 7/4. £40 each later we cheered loudly as it came home in some style, and let me tell you, the 10/1 generally available on this horse winning the Triumph hurdle in March is superb value.

Unfortunately that was to be the high point of the day, as we didn't pick another winner all afternoon. Oh how we cursed when Tony McCoy, who had been extremely downbeat about Galaxy Rock's chances on The Morning Line, led the field a merry dance at 9/1.

A couple of celebrity spots were made though. I was briefly sat next to Willie Twiston-Davies in the centaur bar, who gave me a nice "please don't spill your pint over me" look. I was just about to engage in a bit of banter about how he got me bang out of trouble at last years festival aboard Baby Run, but he and his mate took off, probably to assess the crumpet outside, of which there was no shortage.

Later on, an even bigger celebrity spot. I caught sight (by hair only) of Sky Sports News goddess, and Dec reject Georgie Thompson. Like any full blooded males, Neal and myself have always been fond admirers of the pint sized stunner, and as soon as I alerted my pal, we did a 180 degree turn and he was off like a shot to catch up with her. What a wasted moment though. Rather than suggesting a quick photo which could have been immortalised on this very blog forever, he nervously stuttered and bumbled his way through a sentence which ended up having his programme signed "To Leo, love Georgie".

The night of course got worse as I lost a pretty penny on the non-trying Spaniards, and then tried to get out of trouble on the Wolverhampton sands which didn't start too positively. Incidentally something I have noticed of late regarding Godolphin runners: When they are well backed you need to get on, but when they're not...no chance. Barney Curley plays the game straighter than those boys.

Anyway thanks to a couple of winners on the horses and a total wide full toss from the bookies on the darts (10/11 Wayne Jones to beat the hapless Dolan), some of the losses were recouped.

Speaking of the darts, I've gone out of my way to watch as much as possible and I'm happy with my £45 investment on the Power at 5/4. Ted Hankey is fantastic entertainment, and whilst ITV4 were scared, and slightly ashamed of the misspelled Count's antics, Dave Clarke and the Sky boys are selling that gravy train for all it's worth. I never thought I would ever see a Sky graphic reading: "DARTS, Including Ted Hankey v Ian White", in my life. You almost got the feeling that if Hankey had somehow lost to White, Barry Hearn would have come on stage and offered White a brown envelope stuffed with cash to jog on. Actually perhaps he already did that beforehand.

But the Grand Slam is a brilliant tournament, and always has been. Far better for my money than the World Championships, which has too many players and goes on too long. Here we are in the middle of a hugely prestigious tournament, and all Clarkey is asking the winners afterwards is whether it's been good practice for the Worlds.

Four very tight games in prospect tonight and tough to call. If pushed I would say Walsh to beat Winstanley at 6/5, and Wade to beat Anderson at 11/10 are the ones to be on.

Weekend Preview

2011-11-11T18:34:00.007Z

Apologies for the lack of updates but just don't get much time these days. This blogs a bit like a turkey at the moment, worried it won't see Christmas. Anyway, last weekend went brilliantly, what with 10/1 headline tip Darren Morgan doing the job in style, further joy on the NFL, and a cheeky little Bolton/Spurs double (all bets proofed on twitter long before the off).

After another long week at work I'm all excited as Neal and myself are off to Cheltenham tomorrow where we'll endeavour to go through the card between us, and hopefully enjoy a Gin & Tonic with Jimbo if he's about.

I've long fancied Mon Parrain for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, but I've gone off it for two reasons. First of all the price, as the 7/1 has shrunk to 7/2 (William Hill are going a standout 5/1 in the morning though). But I've also watched that Aintree race a few more times and as lovely as it travelled and jumped, it was a concern how it emptied out. I might use my expert paddock nostrils to sniff out a bit of value down the weights instead.

The advice this week is to lump on Spain to beat England at 10/11 tomorrow evening. You don't need me to tell you why, it's quite obvious. Prices like this don't come along very often, so have a decent bet and wave your ticket around in the pub at all the deluded crying England fans. I waded in with £100 with Boylesports at 20/21 on Monday, but that investment will be at least doubled tomorrow with any sort of success on the gee gees.

It's the Grand Slam of darts starting tomorrow, my favourite tournament of the year. I'm totally out of touch with darts form and won't be able to watch much of it anyway so can't do an in depth write-up. However, I've looked at the draw and surprise surprise, even without being the No.1 seed, Phil Taylor has bagged an easy draw. He should sail through to the final which makes him a decent bet at 5/4.

A highly enjoyable touch was landed today. With it being 11/11/11, I felt it was in the stars that Trap 1 would land the 11.11 at Hove. After checking that it had half a chance I placed the obligatory £11 on it (I know, should have been £11.11 really...) and it duly got up in a photo at 9/4! It's never to early to think about the future, and as Zager & Evans should have said "If it's 2222, back the blue".

The highlight of the day though was a spot of flirting with the absolutely lovely Alex Hammond, a lady who could easily grace the coveted ECOTW award if I hadn't sold the rights to Al Jazeera television. Cheeky banter was swapped and then she direct messaged me asking me to give her the sort of ride McCoy gave Wichita Lineman. That last bit might not be strictly true, but it's all I've thought of since.

X-Factor tomorrow, and with the hapless Frankie Cokeoverdozza finally slung out, I've been reduced to tears. For weeks I've been telling the girl at work that Amelia Lily would be brought back at some point, but did I have a couple of quid at 250/1? Did I bollocks. Sure enough, here she is back in it and a top priced 6/1, which could have been an easy four figure green book if I'd been switched on.

Frankie's elimination has not been kind to Kitty, who will probably go this week. An extra week in the competition could have been enough for the public to realise that Janet is a one trick dull as dishwater pony, but as things stand, any odds against quotes for Kitty to go look value.

The Kitty/Spain/Phil Taylor treble pays 8.6 with the increasingly impressive William Hill, and that's a wager that should give you a run for your money.

10/1 Morgan A Touch Of Value In The Valleys

2011-11-04T21:55:00.004Z

Very boring on the blog front this week people. The only two football bets that represent a touch of value to me are both on Sunday, so I'll stick a post up on Saturday night. I'll add this weeks NFL tips to it as I need to rebound from last weeks horror show of tipping (Tebow anybody...?).

I note with interest that the World Seniors Snooker is live on Sky this weekend. It should go down well, as the star power of the 80's heroes and Dennis Taylor's humorous quips should mask the quality of play.

As with all things green baize, Snookerbacker's excellent blog is a must. I've had a sneaky wager on Welshman Darren Morgan at 10/1 with Ladbrokes. Dour Morgan makes Jack Dee look like Johnny off X-Factor, but this guy was a top class match player for a three or four year period, and word has it he has held his form better than most of these, who will be happy to trouser the bag of sand appearance fee.

Speaking of X-Factor it's a double eviction this week so check the rules before you bet. If its a case of lowest in votes straight out and then a sing off between the next two, then Kitty is the value to go first at 3/1, but I suggest you get to Bet365 and back Kitty and Little Mix to be the two acts eliminated. They go a massive 20/1 (that will not last long at all) and it's decent value.

Dear Jim, Please Fix It For Me To Do My Absolute Bollocks On This Fine Saturday...

2011-10-29T23:41:00.004+01:00

Grrr...I so nearly didn't get involved as well. But the 7/10 Chelsea was too big a temptation to pass up unfortunately, so £60 to win £42 was an opportunity that couldn't be overlooked. Surely Chelsea could stick three goals or more past my beloved Arsenal's defence? Errm...yes.

Well Arsenal of course scored five, but the comedy moment came at half time with the Blues 2-1 up where I "sensibly protected my stake" by backing the draw at 4/1 "for insurance".

What with a tenner on Time For Rupert at 100/30 (started 11/8, even with the 25p R4 that's value - jumped flawlessly, but just didn't quite have the speed to live with the winner) and a hopeless £1 each way Lucky 15 it was a day of gambling to forget.

But there's always tomorrow and I advise any of those shrewd punters who laid "The Landlord" at 1.03 last Christmas to back my NFL tips now that you've FINALLY been paid out. Usual rules - 4 x trebles and the dream acca:

St. Louis +13.5 (Rams are not as bad as all that)

Denver (Tebow IS actually God) +3

Seattle +1 (Ridiculous home advantage in that stadium)

Dallas +3 (Michael Vick was a good boy last season but he's let himself off the leash this year and the Eagles are very soon to be in meltdown)

Time For Chelsea and Rupert

2011-10-28T22:38:00.005+01:00

An interesting day of Soccerball action tomorrow with a very real possibility of rampant Manchester City ending the day with an eight point lead at this early stage of the season. City certainly won't have any trouble dismissing Wolves. There's more chance of my mate Mick McCarthy taking on all the Wanderers fans and winning than them getting a point tomorrow. Skybet go 2/1 that City score four or more goals and that price is well worth taking.

I of course changed my long term plan of backing City for the title in favour of a late change to Manchester United. After a great start, the red side of Manchester have been playing poorly for weeks now (it began against Benfica weeks ago), and the embarassing battering on Sunday was no great surprise to me. A strong reaction will be demanded, and they should be able to take three points from Goodison against a team that went to extra time on Wednesday night. 5/6 is fair enough but it's not a mortgage job by any means.

The price of the week to me looks to be Paddy Power's 7/10 that Chelsea beat Arsenal. I can't bring myself to back against the team that made the English Premier League the global spectacle it is today, but Arsenal's recent good run is all about smoke and mirrors. They haven't played any teams of quality (the one they did play, Spurs, they lost to), and the defence is a shambles. There's even rumours that Johnny Evans is being lined up in January to shore it up a bit. Mata and Torres will be licking their lips at the prospect, and this is a home win.

A decent odds against poke is Wigan at 21/10 home to Fulham. Wigan are being written off too quickly, and I can't believe more is not being made at how bad Fulham have been this season. They're notoriously bad away from home as well, and that's a huge price for a home win.

Charlie Hall chase day always signals the proper start of the jumps season to me, and what a great

race we have in prospect tomorrow. I am in truly shocking form on the gee gees so won't offer a tip, but I will be backing Time For Rupert to recover some Festival losses on the horse.

After rightfully receiving a good dusting down from readers for not putting enough effort into my 80's movie empire, I've caught up on all of them this week, as well as buying 13 more from the year 1980, all for less than a bullseye, can't be bad. A brief rundown of this weeks viewing:

Friday The 13th (1980): I loved this. Completely overacted in places and some strange fashion going on, but this is what 80's movies are all about. The time flew by, and the twist at the end comes when you are totally not expecting it. I'll be surprised if any of the nine sequels are as good.

Bull Durham (1988): So so. The sporting aspect of it is pretty realistic but the romance side of things were so predictable. And you've got Susan Sarandon in it but she doesn't get her tits out? What's that all about? They may as well have got Demi Moore. Watching this during perhaps the best World Series of all time, this film didn't live up to it's general rating for me.

Poltergeist (1983): I need to watch this again I think. This was the fourth film I'd watched on my day off and I didn't think it was as great as it's widely perceived to be. Don't get me wrong it was good, but I just felt the last twenty minutes after the daughter had been saved were pointless and silly, and should have all happened before she was rescued?

Ocean's Twelve (2004): Bigger letdown than the two for one special at Glitter Gulch. Ocean's Eleven was such an enjoyable film I was looking forward to this, but the actors just seem to phone it in, and the ridiculous revelation at the end makes the previous forty five minutes totally pointless. Oh, and it's not in Vegas. Catherine Zeta Jones is monumentally hot though.

Ocean's Thirteen (2007): Back in Vegas, and back being good again. Al Pacino is great as the bad guy you want to hate, and the gang are all back on form for an enjoyable heist.

It's Tebow Time

2011-10-23T14:34:00.002+01:00

A lot of the critics have said that Tim Tebow will never be an NFL Quarterback, but tonight he can start to prove them wrong. He's the definition of the word winner, and will go on to win loads of games, starting against a dreadful Dolphins team who are doing everything right in their pursuit of Andrew Luck next year.

Four trebles and an acca tonight on the following:

Denver to beat Miami

Oakland -4.5 v Kansas City

Pittsburgh -3.5 v Arizona

Dallas -14 v St Louis

Whip Rule

2011-10-22T23:11:00.002+01:00

Why is it that the big name jockeys in racing consider this new whip rule somehow beneath them? After a quite frankly boring week or so of the flat boys moaning about not being able to count to seven, totally overshadowing what should have been a whole new audience getting to watch the best horse of the last twenty years, today was the turn of the jumps jockeys and trainers.

Sure enough, it's all kicked off because golden boy Ruby Walsh has been given a "despicable" five day ban for breaking what seems a quite simple rule to adhere to.

I must declare an extremely small (£4 if you must know) financial interest in the matter, but I'd had a word for the Twiston-Davies horse The Cockney Mackem so stuck some loose change on at 7/2. I've no idea how small it traded in-running (1.05 at the very least I'm guessing) but it was cantering all over the eventual winner Edgardo Sol. However, a rather tentative approach and therefore blunder at the last fence was the deciding factor in losing, but ONLY going down a nose to a horse that had been whipped twice more than was allowed by Ruby in what was called by many as "the ride of the season so far".

I don't really agree with these new whip rules, but I'm not bothered too much either way. The fact of the matter is that they are the RULES, and whether the top jockeys like it or not, they have to adhere to them like everybody else. I'm 34 years of age and with the exception of two speeding tickets I've never broken the law in my life, so why should they?

A five day ban for hitting a horse nine times instead of seven, IS harsh, especially for the lesser earning jockeys. A better solution all round would be for the horse to be disqualified. This would benefit the punters (who lest we forget finance racing at all levels) and would allow the trainers to mete out their own discretionary penalties to their own jockeys that they see fit.

On this particular occasion Paul Nicholls would have changed his tune about it being such a great ride, but would have deservedly stayed loyal to his stable jockey (who I think by the way is the best in the business). However, if he kept breaking the rules, the trainer would rightfully have second thoughts about employing said jockey. It's not rocket science is it?

And I haven't heard anybody else ask this question yet but it has been asked a lot in my shop of late. How many of Tony McCoy's (who is nowhere near the horsemen that Walsh is) 3000+ winners would he have had under these rules?

Wolves and Films

2011-10-21T22:42:00.004+01:00

Been very tentavive on the footy bets this year so far (in profit though), and again just the one bet for me this weekend, and that is Wolves to get three points at home to the taffs tomorrow lunchtime.

I don't like Mick McCarthy, but how he's managed to keep this rabble in the top flight several years running is quite something. An achievement built on two factors: kick lumps out of the opponents, and win home games like this. The Wanderers are on a terrible run, and a home game to relegation certs Swansea could not come at a better time.

Home win, get on at evens or a shade better if possible. I've had a fairly lumpy single, and a double with Luton (who won tonight, it was on in the shop you see so a bet made the evening more interesting). I'm off work Sunday so hopefully the Wolves win will finance a few Manchester Durrby and NFL arrers.

Not much else to report, although I have caught up on a backlog of films on DVD in the last few weeks which I shall try to sum up in a sentence each. They are all from the 1980's (collecting every 80's film ever remember) except the bottom one, obviously:

The Long Riders: Thought I'd be bored to tears with a western, but absolutely loved it.
The Changeling: Looked alright, not great, but had been on the sauce so fell asleep through most of it.
Fame: Was expecting it to be like an episode of Glee, but a much darker meaning. Not brilliant (maybe 6/10), and far too long, but a historically important film I suppose.
Local Hero: Highly enjoyable from start to finish, love the soundtrack.
Oceans Eleven: Why on God's Green Earth have I not watched this film sooner?

Last few to watch before I order another batch of twenty or so, let me know if any should be avoided:

Bull Durham, Friday The 13th, The Nude Bomb, Little Darlings, Poltergeist.

There was a hugely scary scene right near the start of Ocean's Eleven though for anybody familiar with my Roulette strategy. The boy Clooney is walking through the casino and passes a roulette wheel that is chock-a-block full of black numbers, at least the last twenty spins! Would I have been lucky enough to enter the room at the point he did and lump on Red, I wonder...? No. Me neither.

Terrific Tuesday

2011-10-19T11:45:00.005+01:00

A quite marvellous day yesterday by any standards: The Stone Roses got back together, my first listen of the excellent Noel Gallagher album, and an acca up on the football for the first time since about 2002.

People of my approximate age have been hoping for a Roses comeback for years, and it's finally here. It's all about the mystery you see, as well as the sheer quality of the music. They made one incredible album at a time when they could probably have made four or five good ones, were forced into the wilderness due to the record company dispute, and then came back a few years later with another excellent album.

Here's hoping that any new material doesn't destroy the legacy (Noel Gallagher jumped ship at least a couple of albums too late), and that the sound system is better than the one used at Spike Island (you know, that legendary gig that everyone claims they were at).

At the end of last year there was one of those "give us a prediction for the coming year" threads on the Betfair Chit Chat forum, and I replied something like "The Stone Roses will reform and headline Glastonbury". Looks like I was a year out, but who cares. Four men have made a generation of music fans extremely happy.

"High Flying Birds" by the man who should be the Prime Minister of this country, is a cracking solo debut album. Three listens is not enough to give a full review, suffice to say I loved it, sounded a bit like The Kinks in places (certainly no bad thing), and "AKA...Broken Arrow" has made me dust off the acoustic guitar from under my bed.

Onto last night's bit of luck on the footy. I hate betting on anything other than the Premier League as I just don't follow the lower leagues or European competitions to have any great confidence.

But one of my shops better punters was oozing with confidence that Crystal Palace were good things at home to bottom of the table Bristol City. His reasoning sounded reasonably sound, but rather than lump on at a shade of odds-on, I stuck them in an acca with Champions League "certainties" Real Madrid and the two Manchester clubs.

Oddschecker informed me that Victor Chandler was the man to bet with, as they were 11/4. With the other three teams all nailed on you were getting 11/4 Palace, was my thinking. As always, things never go that smoothly, but it was nice for late goals to go my way for a change. Palace didn't score until the 81st minute, but it was the late late goal at the Etihad stadium that finally landed the bet.

Sergio Aguerro netted the City winner with one of the last kicks of the game, and it was great to see the increasingly likeable Roberto Mancini celebrating like a nutter running around hugging everyone. It brought back memories of David Pleat running all over the pitch far faster than he ever went in his car.

Saturday Review

2011-10-16T23:17:00.002+01:00

Decent day yesterday after losing a bit on the Liverpool-United game. I really should have looked at the team lineups beforehand. Ferguson's selections for such a big game were mind boggling, especially as they are only playing rabbits in the Champions League this week.

The Frankel/Man City bullseye was a pleasing bet though, neither of them ever being in any doubt. Tom Queally got some stick earlier in the season, but I thought he came across as incredibly humble and thankful to have been involved with the horse of a generation.

I ended up about £20 up on my "planned" bets but things got better. Whilst meeting my mother for a drink in town, I asked her what the score in the Chelsea-Everton would be (I had an odd £2 left in one of my accounts). 3-1 to Chelsea she replied, quick as a flash, so the £2 went on that at 12/1. And then whilst passing Stan James there was a horse gambled in from 8/1 to 11/2. I had an Ayrton Senna each way at 11/2, and joyously watched it backed into 4/1 and win in style taking the days profit to around £100.

No bets today although I did write this one out for a bit of interest. Totally forgot to pop over to Ladbrokes before 6.00 to put it on though so there will be a seethe if it comes in. Back on Friday unless anything amusing happens before then.

Champions Day

2011-10-15T11:23:00.004+01:00

Well last night's big final was a disappointment. We were soundly thrashed 2-0 despite some extremely encouraging practices yesterday.

But what a mouth watering day of sport we have in front of us. It's already started off nicely, with 11/8 certainties France seeing off the Welsh with the minimum of fuss.

It's Qipco Champions Day at Ascot today with some truly mouthwatering encounters taking place. There's been a lot of nonsense over the whip rule this week. My personal view is that as long as Mistress Natalia doesn't enforce a strict "seven lashes maximum" on our next session, then it's a perfectly good rule that needs to be abided by. Frankel is a horse that will never need to see that particular instrument though. He's the best horse of our generation and 2/5 is fantastic value for the big hitters today. The horse can't lose, but Dick Turpin at 25/1 is good each way value for the working men.

Elsewhere on the card I like Fame And Glory at 7/2 in the Stayers, Society Rock in the Sprint at 7/1 in the Sprint, and 7/1 Nathaniel in the Champion Stakes.

Great soccerball card today as well, with Champions elect Manchester United travelling to former arch rivals Liverpool. United have had a dodgy spell, but with players returning to fitness there's only one result here. They will outclass Liverpool, so have chunks of the 7/4 that is available, as well as plenty of the 10/11 on over 2.5 goals.

City at 4/11 look absolute bankers at home to a Villa team whose bubble will burst in big style soon. A City/Frankel double pays 1.9 with Paddy Power, and neither of them should have you sweating too much.

My reality TV bets have been terrible lately, but that won't stop me trying. The producers will not let Nancy and Anton be eliminated tonight, so get on big Audley Harrison to be knocked out of the Dave Arch trophy tonight at a tempting 7/4 with Ladbrokes.

X Factor is harder to call. A bad performance from Johnny Robinson could easily make him an 8/1 scapegoat and is worth a few quid, but a safer bet could be Rhythmix at 4/1. They sang ok last week, but they are not good looking, and girl groups do not tick any boxes at all with the people who vote on these things.

Hostile crowd gathers at Aunt Sally Final's Night...

2011-10-14T17:41:00.002+01:00

Finals Night

2011-10-14T09:47:00.002+01:00

Apologies for the lack of updates of late, but I've been working lots of hours and not been gambling so there's hardly much to write about anyway. I'll never delete this blog (um...again) as I'm proud of it's history, and will one day read it back again to see what a twat I was, but updates may only be once or twice weekly for the foreseeable future. Except that is, for the next stop on the infamous blog world tour, which will be the weekend of December 2nd,3rd,4th from a secret location to be announced.

Good news on the Friday morning weigh-in front. I've lost 6lb since my last weigh-in (way back on the 8th August) which makes 12lb in total since what could loosely be described as a diet started on July 16th. Motivation is high as I've been promised a very special treat if I can get back down to my "fighting" weight of 14st.

This weekend won't help though, as I'm off work for two days and there will be plenty of ale consumption. Tonight sees the finals night of the Oxford & District Aunt Sally Association. Our little team from the Three Pigeons are far too good for Section One, but not as good as the other three Premier Teams. This means that year after year we try our best but are always guaranteed bottom place in the Premier League, but we do give them all a run for their money in the various cup competitions.

Indeed last year we won the 8-a-side Knockout cup by upsetting the George Littlemore, and this year we've reached the final again, and can retain the trophy for the first time in our history by beating the top team, the Cricketers Cowley. Anything can happen in the final but a reasonable estimate of the odds would make them 1/3 shots with us no shorter than about 9/4.

The night will be somewhat tinged with sadness for me though. I should have been in the final of the singles (totally froze on the big stage of the semis), the final of the pairs (myself and Roger were not allowed to enter due to the politics of certain people, but we would have been 6/4 favourites to win the whole thing), and the final of the fours (robbed by some of the worst calling I've ever seen in my life).

A good night will be had win or lose though, but tomorrow things get even better. A great lineup of Footy games, Champions Day from Ascot, and X Factor in the evening. I'll be doing a blog tomorrow morning with all my thoughts on a great day of action, and will be doing some sort of £200 challenge, with the aim being to make a profit from a variety of different bets. And if Richard Hughes doesn't want to ride because he wants to be able to abuse his horses more than he's allowed to, then tell him to fuck off and get someone who does want to.

Underrated Tom Petty Song Of The Week

2011-10-13T06:45:00.001+01:00

(Normal blog service will resume tomorrow afternoon...)

World Grand Prix Darts Update

2011-10-06T23:08:00.002+01:00

The World Grand Prix Darts has been on this week and it's been a tournament full of surprises so far: Richie Burnett beat Gary Anderson, Andy Smith beat Raymond Barneveld, and Jamie Caven won a leg.

My blogs are few and far between these days due to work commitments, but my twitter followers have had it right off this week so far. My outright tournament advice was:

James Wade - 3pts @9/1

Dave Chisnall - 0.5pts @ 70/1

Chizzy bottled it big time (and not for the first time on TV...) missing 13 match darts against Tabern, but Wadey is still going strong, and could easily win yet another major without having to play Taylor.

Also nailed four bets out of five so far which were:

Ovens to beat Caven @ 5/6 (described as an "absolute wheelbarrow job" - If Caven really is a professional darts player I feel truly sorry for his family)

Baxter to beat Nicholson @ 5/2 (lost)

Part to beat Lewis @ 11/4 (won)

Dolan to beat Part @ 11/4 (won)

Hylton to beat Whitlock @ 11/4 (won)

Haven't looked closely yet but at first glance Dolan to beat Henderson at 5/4 could be worth a dabble in the Quarters. Dolan has less brain cells than Jedward, but he's playing ok and Henderson looks like an accident waiting to happen when he's in sight of the finish line.

Hate these International footy weekends, but I have had a little bet on an England (footy)/France (Rugby) double. Hills go 4.98 which looks perfectly reasonable to me.

Weekend Bets

2011-09-30T23:10:00.002+01:00

There will of course be no bets this weekend, as it's Arc weekend, a weekend I am forever cursed by. My downward spiral into gambling hell that cost me a perfectly good house started with Montjeu's pathetic performance in the 2000 Arc, a bet only placed because Michael Tabor, who I had long considered a shrewd cookie, suggested his horse was a good thing.

It's not as if the race has gotten any easier over the years. If form counted for anything at all then the So You Think-Snow Fairy reverse forecast would be easy money, with slight preference for the admirable filly who has improved with every run this year to get the nod. But these French races are always silly affairs with silly nancy boy jockeys that don't go at the right pace to make it a fair test, so I suggest you leave the race alone.

And the only football bet that strikes me as value is any odds against quotes on Spurs to beat Arsenal on Sunday, and my love for Arsene Wenger and his team prevents me from wagering any money at all on that outcome.

So if you'll excuse me I'm off to hide in my custom built Arc-De-Triomphe week cave, and will see you next week, fully invigorated, unless of course Snow Fairy wins in which case I'll feel even worse.

NFL Week 3

2011-09-25T10:59:00.002+01:00

What was looking like a decent day yesterday (Torres to score at 1.95 was a pleasing touch) was soon scuppered by Manchester United's capitulation against Stoke. But QPR's victory today will finance a week changing "four trebles and an acca" on this weeks NFL action with the following selections:

New Orleans -4
Miami v Cleveland over 41.5
NY Jets v Oakland over 41.5
Arizona v Seattle over 42.5

Premier League Preview

2011-09-23T21:50:00.004+01:00

Today was one of those days when you think there might just be a God after all. I hardly ever bet on the gee gees except on a Saturday, but with the nation getting caught up in £3 million Jackpot fever, I decided to try and pick out a few 10p lines to give myself a chance of snatching the huge bounty on offer.

However, when this 10p perm calculated into three figures, I filed it in the "too hard" category but decided to put the hour of form study to some use by doing a £1 each way Lucky 15 instead. I was absolutely cursing myself for getting involved when all the bet could muster was a solitary place at 9/2, returning £2.13.

But in anger, I whacked the £2.13 on an ambitious treble in the next three races, they all won, and £95.85 was swiftly withdrawn from my Coral account. Good times.

Soccerball tomorrow, and when will the layers learn? Manchester United should be 1/20 shots for every league game they play, unless they are playing City or Chelsea in which case they should

be 1/4. They are on a different planet, have almost every referee in their back pocket, and will destroy Stoke in the teatime kickoff tomorrow. Victor Chandler go 4/7 and that needs to be smashed into, although not in the Richard Keys sense of the word. There's also value in backing them on the handicaps, on the spreads, to win to nil, and Nani to score anytime at a tasty 9/4.

I can't see any value in the other long odds on shots. I'm fairly sure that laying City, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Liverpool to level stakes would return a profit. Tottenham will be of interest to many at 19/20 and is definitely one to consider, but I can't help but feel Spurs are a much better side at home.

The bet of the weekend could well turn out to be QPR to beat Villa on Sunday at 13/10. They look a team on the up, but they won't need any upward mobility at all against a Villa side that are fast becoming the most boring team in England. If the Super Hoops can create as many chances as they did in their previous match at Loftus Road, there is only one winner.

Also like West Brom at home to Fulham at 11/8. Not quite sure what happened to Woy's boys last weekend, but they hadn't done a lot wrong before that, and there offence could create plenty of chances at the Hawthorns this season.

So the advice is something like:

a) Enter balls deep into the 4/7 Man United
b) Do a United/QPR/West Brom trixie
c) Lay Chelsea, Arsenal, City, and Liverpool to level stakes
d) Ignore all of the above, because it will probably all be proved wrong

You pays your money, you takes your choice. Have a good weekend everyone.

News

2011-09-22T10:02:00.005+01:00

So Full Tilt Poker has done a runner with everybodies money then? I find playing poker boring enough, and reading about it ten times worse so forgive me for not doing much research on this story. But the jist of it seems to be that they were spending players deposited money on bonuses to the shareholders and hoping that everybody didn't want to withdraw at once.

What's happened here is clearly despicable, and lets hope the people responsible for this get the appropriate sentence. But I can't have much sympathy for the "poker pros" who had huge amounts of money tied up in there.

For about a year I made a lot of money in the infancy of online poker. So much money in fact that I lost the value of a pound, quit my job, and ended up close to bankruptcy several years later - but thats another story that I'm saving for the autobiography.

During the time I was making this money, I was only playing off a $2,000 float. I withdrew the winnings every single day down to $2k again, and if I ever had a losing day I'd play as many hours as I had to the next day to get it back again and more. It worked, and in the highly unlikely event that Ladbrokes Poker were ever to go bust with all our money, I wouldn't have been suicidal about it, because my bankroll in there was a very small percentage of my turnover.

So whilst I've got sympathy for the small stakes players who may have had a few hundred dollars in there that they couldn't really afford to lose, anybody with six figure sums in a Full Tilt account needs their heads checked. When it takes ten seconds to make a deposit from your own bank account (that pays you interest, no less), why take the risk?

-----------------------------------

Will somebody please wave the white flag of surrender on this Rugby World Cup thing. What a complete load of rubbish. Half the rules don't make any sense at all. For instance, why don't they just all practice drop goals and kick them for an easy three points every time rather than risk going for a try which is usually stopped by the defending team. You'd be guaranteed thirty points a game from drop goals alone.

But on Saturday morning it gets even dafter. New Zealand play France. One team the odds on favourites for the competition, and the others very live outsiders with a decent World Cup record. And neither team will want to win. That's right, the winners of this game will almost certainly have to play South Africa and Australia just to reach the final. The "losing" team will get a virtual bye through to the finals by playing the likes of England and Ireland.

How will they go about this I wonder? Kick the ball as far as they can out of touch with no intention of scoring? Oh, wait...that's what happens in every single other game of Rugby Union. ITV knew they were flogging a lame duck when they start getting phone calls asking them to bring back Daybreak.

Talking of Daybreak, Christine Bleakley is pictured here dressed as a schoolgirl. This was a very important photoshoot that was done tastefully for charity, and not in any way designed to boost the ratings for her flagging show, or indeed to further her own individual profile or career.

----------------------------------------

My gambling hot streak officially ended on Tuesday night. I'd been on a two or three week run where literally (at least in the Jamie Redknapp sense of the word literally) every bet was a winning one. I didn't list them on here or twitter, but it was uncanny how they were flying in from all angles, and I was knocking the free bets and bonuses out of the park for good measure.

But Tuesday I was brought firmly back to earth. I didn't even want to get involved, but the shop was quiet so I had a look through the Carling Cup coupon and came to the conclusion that the 8/13 for Leeds and Manchester United to both score was an easy way of snatching another £40.

The away team score within five minutes, and still I don't collect! Oh well, it's still been a great month. Back to betting in fivers for a bit now though

----------------------------------------

Very sad news indeed about Sid Waddell, who is suffering from bowel cancer. I was a huge darts fan before the BDO/PDC split, but to look at the difference in the standing of the sport now to what it was then, it's unbelievable. Whether you like him or not as a commentator, he's one of, if not THE main reason for the ascent of the PDC on Sky that led to Barry Hearn getting involved and giving us the product we've got today. Get well soon Sid.

28/1 Cat to get the Ayr Gold Cup cream

2011-09-16T22:40:00.002+01:00

It's the Ayr Gold Cup tomorrow and suddenly everything becomes clear. You may remember me castigating Daryl Holland last Saturday for his ride on Son Of The Cat. I even scandalously suggested it may have been nearly as bad as the ride Kevin Manning gave Lush Lashes a few years ago. I must apologise unreservedly to "The Dazzler".

It's quite clear the message was: "Give him a tune up, don't you dare make the first four, get him spot on for next Saturday". They've put a proper jockey up this week, Ladbrokes are going a top price 28/1, and it's time to make them pay (I have a huge moan to make about Ladbrokes, and I will explain what is going on when I have more time).

If you don't believe me, I ask just one thing. Go to the ATR or Racing Post website and have a look at last Saturday's race, watching only Son Of The Cat. You'll be on the phone to the Magic Sign within 30 seconds, I promise. Get on, and get on large, it's time to have it right off.

The football looks tricky this weekend, so no bet for me on the Saturday games. Arsenal and Bolton will probably have their supporters at a shade of odds on, and probably rightly so. Everton would be my lay of the day, not sure Wigan have done a lot wrong to be honest.

I will be getting stuck into United again on Sunday though at home to Chelsea. Bet365 are repeating their excellent offer from the Champions League final (where we completely emptied the satchels), and giving you a free bet in play to the same stake as your pre-match bet, up to (I think) a maximum of £50. Get stuck in to that but a word of warning: Make sure you're logged in right on kick off to have the extra bullseye on United, because they won't hang around to put the blues to the sword.

X Factor 2011 - Year Of The Fat Kids

2011-09-15T22:18:00.005+01:00

After taping all of the X Factor episodes so far, I watched them all in one go the other night. The reason was twofold. First, I hadn't had time to watch them any sooner, but also I wanted to watch them with the odds in front of me and all the acts from show one just as fresh in the mind as this weeks shows.

First off, with the exception of Louis Walsh, I love the judging panel. All three of the debutants have been perfectly good (and Kelly is ridiculously hot), all far better than Cheryl and Danii, and whilst your always going to miss Simon, Gary is not afraid to call a spade a spade, and might tone down the pathetic ramping of his favoured contestants after a God awful performance.

The show jumped the shark long before this year though, and has gone the same way I have always predicted. Anybody of 19 years of age or older who is even half decent would have already been on it by now, which means you're left with a bunch of teenagers and a few groups.

But a 10/1 X Factor winner pays the same as a 10/1 Arc De Triomphe winner, and it's not like I'm ever going to have one of the latter so let's get punting.

A couple of things to bear in mind. This year as always the winner will almost certainly be whichever act Simon wants to win, it's still his show after all. But in contrast to most other reality shows, it's not always the most popular contestant that wins. They need to be somewhat popular, and need to be able to sing pretty good too.

Anyway, I'm certain they will try and pull out all the stops for a group to finally win the show this year, which is why I've gone in large on The Keys to win at a general 10/1. Their audition was outstanding, and tick all the boxes when it comes to teeny-boppers voting for them. Will they win? I think they will actually, but they are certainly going deep, and they are certainly trading at a hell of a lot shorter than 10/1 as Christmas looms (100 days to go by the way). Lump on.

Now most of the other fat kids that have progressed to Boot Camp are all much of a muchness, but one that could surprise is young Luke Lucas, at 33/1. With a name like that he should be doing bad Rod Stewart covers in Working Mens Clubs. He is almost certainly too young and immature to get to the latter stages without cracking, but his voice was terrific, his chubby little looks won't threaten anybody, and is sure to be popular what with his crush on Tulisa and all that. Worth a fiver perhaps.

Premier League preview up tomorrow, but the highlight of the footballing week so far came at Maine Road or whatever they're calling it this week. At half time it was announced that Ryan Giggs had scored for United and this announcement was followed by them playing "Ever Fallen In Love" by the Buzzcocks. A cheeky move by the bloke upstairs, or perhaps the PA system had just been hacked by the dastardly hacker that cost poor Garry Cook his job.

Hot Streak

2011-09-13T17:14:00.003+01:00

Can't wait to get back to work tomorrow, been bored to tears to be honest. It has however been a profitable six days, I just can't miss at the moment. The Sunday NFL bet I put up on here returned a profit of £20 (would have been £450 if the Giants had won...).

I've had two bets since and both have won. Today was just a bet on Firebeam in the 4.00 at Haydock. Brough Scott (the owner) had been exuding confidence on Twitter, and it duly bolted up at 11/10. But there was an even nicer touch yesterday as I did a treble on Djokovic (-2.5 games), New England Patriots, and the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders were the long shot but managed to win, landing a 6/1 treble. Happy Days.

Watched a couple of really good WWE Blu-Ray DVD's over the last few days. "The True Story Of Wrestlemania" (true enough although they still lie about the real reason Wrestlemania VII was moved), and "OMG! The Top 50 Incidents in WWE History". The latter was a fantastic watch, and there's hours and hours of extra footage, basically showing all 50 incidents in full.

Whilst I'll never forget what a nutcase Mick Foley was, I had forgotten all about the Hell In A Cell match with Undertaker. Check out the highlights, it's amazing the guy wasn't killed.

I'll be back on Friday with some football tips for the weekend. I'm not a fan of the Champions League group stages at all, but Arsenal might be a touch of value tonight at 16/5 away to Dortmund.

NFL Week 1

2011-09-11T12:47:00.004+01:00

After almost ten minutes research I can conclude that I haven't got a clue who's going to win the Superbowl, although I've backed the Falcons to win a bag and a half of sand just in case they do. I can't be having the Patriots as favourites. The way they were comprehensively beaten by the Jets in the playoffs last year doesn't bode well even if they have strengthened the team.

Green Bay are the team everybody has to beat, but there are some very strong teams in the NFC, and wouldn't put anybody off backing the NFC team to win the Lombardi trophy at 10/11. Perhaps it's the year for the Chargers to finally be bothered, and get to the Superbowl. But the two teams in the AFC North will always be tough to beat, and can never be written off.

As for tonight, the bookies have tossed us a gentle little loosener to smash out of the park. The New York Football Giants will of course beat the Washington Redskins by a lot more than the three point spread. I also fancy the Cowboys to stay close to the Jets with nine bob Romo returning to the starting lineup.

I've done four trebles and an acca on the following for small stakes, and a single on the Giants bet:

Dallas Cowboys +6
NY Giants -2.5
Baltimore to beat Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Eagles -3.5

Great to have football back on the box. By the way, what has happened to Nick Halling, is he not on Sky anymore?

Boom...

2011-09-10T19:45:00.006+01:00

A great today that felt like a return to the good old days that started this blog. It wasn't all plain sailing mind. Apart from a few tiny bets on other things the main betting focus came from four horses (4 x £5 ew singles and a £1 ew Lucky 15) and five football teams (the aforementioned Arsenal/United double and a £5 Patent on Villa/Stoke/West Brom).

Things started brightly, with the first two horses being placed at 11/2 and 8/1, meaning two more places would have returned a nice place dividend on the Lucky. But former jockey Daryl Holland had other ideas. I've always said that the ride Kevin Manning gave Lush Lashes once (11/10 favourite, I had £200 on, the horse found trouble six different times and went down half a length in a five runner race) was the worst ride I have ever seen in my life, but "The Dazzler" was trying to take that crown aboard Son Of The Cat today. A simply appalling ride that you need to watch to again to appreciate how incompetent it was.

This was swiftly followed by the french jockey making a complete pigs ear of the St Leger on the hot favourite Sea Moon that I was healthily invested on. Now I'm not entirely sure that the horse would have won under different circumstances, but I cannot understand why jockeys who are on the obvious class horse in the race leave anything to chance. Pull the horse out wide at the two pole and let it go.

This was all around the time when Arsenal were trying to protect a fortunate one goal lead. It was sheer horror listening to the excellent Five Live commentary, as Swansea seemed to miss all manner of good chances to scupper the 4/11 shots.

But once they had won the day improved massively. Popped into town to watch the United game, and when they were 3-0 up in no time it was a case of not losing my ticket. United and City look unbelievably good this season. It could be 12-12 when they play each other.

After a couple of nice scalps from the fruit machines I wondered into Stan James to encounter a wonderful new starter. The young lady was handsomely endowed and we got chatting straight away.

My cause was helped by having four bets in the shop, only one of them losing. £15 on a 5/2 winner (I shrewdly took the 2/1), £10 on a particularly fast greyhound at evens, and £10 on a 7/2 winner.

I collected all three slips at once and the delightful young thing was already giving me a nice smile, but when i pulled the big footy bet out of my trouser pocket, her look turned to something far more naughty to explain on what has to be a family blog these days.

However I had to keep my feelings under control, as I needed to return home to watch the Alabama game (backed them to win the National Championship at 5/1) and a bit of Andy Murray (backed him to beat Nadal 3-1 @ 15/2 and 3-2 @ 8/1).

NFL preview tomorrow...

Sea Moon Are We

2011-09-10T09:33:00.006+01:00

Won a few quid on Thursday thanks to backing the overs in the NFL game. When you need 47 points and there's been 45 at half time, you're not too nervous about things. Unfortunately gave it all back by backing the 2yo Ballesteros at Sandown yesterday.

I've watched every run of the horse all season and was convinced that yesterday was the day it would finally shed it's maiden tag, and had a decent sized bet at 11/4. I put it up to lay at 1.8 for a bit of security, but when it looked like going on to win it only touched as low as 1.88 before getting collared by the winner. Ouch.

St Leger day today though, and after the classy Sea Moon romped away with the Great Voltigeur, it was odds on in places for the oldest classic in the world. You can now get 2/1, and it's time to absolutely lump on. The horse is far too good to even be running in the St Leger really, they must have been tempted by other glitzy prizes such as the Arc.

The opposition doesn't look strong either. Blue Bunting had everything go right in the Guineas, and hasn't beaten much in her other victories. After a long season we can place lay that all day long. Census looks a rock solid each way bet at 13/2, but should only be playing for place money. And there's more chance of Michael Owen getting a game in this Man United side than his horse winning today.

Sea Moon is not believed to be named after the Paul McCartney song "C-Moon", a song that was actually the B-Side to a track called "Hi, Hi, Hi" but promoted to the A-Side for radio airplay when the latter song was banned by the BBC for sexually suggestive lyrics as well as drug refernces. Don't say you don't learn anything on here.

Soccerball is back today, and whilst I'll be collecting £588 from Stan James later when Arsenal and United do the business, there are a few odds against shots that look overpriced this weekend.

Stoke should never be as big as 13/5 against Liverpool. You have to take your hat off to Stoke City for the last few years. They've been getting better all the time, and after a great last few days of the transfer window they look set to rack up a lot of points. I still believe this new look Liverpool side to be a touch overrated, and the price on a home win looks huge. I've heard that Crouchy and Abby have settled in marvellously, with the lovely Miss Clancy already a regular for bingo nights at the British Legion.

Aston Villa also look big at 3/1 away to Everton. The Toffeemen's start has been even more shambolic than usual, and whilst Alex McLeish has hardly got his Villa side playing Total Football, he has made them tough to beat. The unders are nailed on, but I'm taking a chance they can nick a win.

The other price I like is 15/8 for West Brom to win at Norwich. If Norwich survive this season it will be by a fraction, whereas the Baggies will be comfortable mid table fodder. They actually looked decent against United and Chelsea, and they should have too much class for the Canaries.

It's the welcome return of the Dave Arch Dancing Show tonight, and I can't really offer any tips just yet as I haven't heard of the front two in the betting. It does amuse me that Russell Grant is a shorter price than Audley Harrison, although he probably would be in a boxing match as well. I'll have a fiver on Lulu at 14/1, a woman who has gotten better looking with age, and is guaranteed to get plenty of support from the public.

Topping up the Vegas fund

2011-09-08T11:28:00.007+01:00

Six days off work now, and how sweet it is, with an incredible array of things to bet on over the coming weekend. The first bet has already been placed actually. A £300 double over the counter in Stan James on Arsenal to beat Swansea, and Man United to win at Bolton. People might say "£300, isn't that a lot of money to bet", but I work hard, and have been particularly thrifty over the last month, and never spend more than the bare minimum on clothes.

At 4/11 and 4/9 respectively, the double will return £588, and it will be a case of "Get yourself a drink love" as I pass the £8 back to the girl behind the counter, whilst the £580 will go into the Vegas kitty for all sorts of debauchery, err, I mean lots of poker tournaments next March.

Donny on the box today, and I'm quite sweet on four horses, and have placed a £1 each way Lucky 15. Let's hope Hughesie gives this thing in the first a better ride than he gave Medicean yesterday. Oh look, there's half a furlong to go, I'd better start trying now.

1.25 Amis Reunis @ 8/1
1.55 Alanza @ 3/1
2.25 Bogart @ 11/4
3.00 Sense Of Purpose @ 3/1

It's the "Celebrity" Big Brother Final tonight, and our ante-post bets in great shape, with 8/1 tip Amy now available at 113 on Betfair. At least Kerry isn't going to win. Every person that has voted for her to win should be subjected to a psycho-analysistic test or something. No wonder we live in broken Britain.

Start of the NFL tonight, and the first of approximately ten American Football games I'll be watching live over the next few days. I haven't had chance to have a good look at things yet, but will put a few thoughts up on Sunday. Meanwhile you should of course check out www.kjbetting.co.uk. An excellent read, and the caption under the Michael Vick photo is borderline genius.

As for tonights Packers v Saints game, I can only imagine this being a shootout, and the advice has to be to take the over 47.5 points at 20/21 with the magic sign.

The Highs And Lows Of A Betting Shop Saturday

2011-09-03T22:46:00.003+01:00

Enjoyable day today folks, and what a great days Racing it was. I very rarely bet on Horses these days - my years of regularly paying for the Stan James christmas knees up are long over. But I couldn't resist a little e/w Lucky 15 today and wasn't far away from the big bucks (7/1 winner to start with, then 5/1 and 7/1 shots getting done by a short head...). At least it was just enough profit to pay for the Rotherham to beat Swindon bet, which from all accounts was daylight robbery.

Hoof It would certainly have won with Kieren Fallon on board, and is clearly a sprinter to be feared on decent ground. But the performance of the day for me came from Snow Fairy, and of course the horse that beat it So You Think. I've been watching Snow Fairy all season and they were clearly bringing it along slowly for some big late season runs, and I felt she had a decent chance of upsetting the 1/4 jolly. When she got close to the favourite though, he found more and more, a horse out of the absolute top drawer.

There was a small incident in the evening with some angry lad of lets say non-British origin kicking the machines in. My job is the best but the saddest aspect of it is seeing people lose money they can't afford to lose in the machines. But when they start kicking the fixtures and fittings and swearing loudly, I feel quite glad that they haven't got a pot to piss in.

Anyway, after telling him to jog on, he comes up to me and shouts "F*** O** you C***" (a standard jibe, water off a ducks back to the 2013 Betting Shop Manager Of The Year), but then asks me how my Mother and Sister's arseholes were. I must admit this question totally threw me, as I'd never been asked it before. To start with I don't have a Sister, and to the best of my knowledge my Mum is on holiday, and certainly hasn't text me with any issues. By the time I'd figured out a retort he'd stormed out the door anyway to be fair.

So good to come home to a semi-competitive College Football game, it wouldn't be the first time USC has lost to an unranked team after all. Can't wait for next weekend (I have six days off work starting Thursday) where I will literally not move from the TV. I will be watching six College, three NFL, and three EPL games. I shall only move to collect the takeaway, which will be financed by a heavy lump on the Arsenal/United double (Unibet are comically going odds against on what is an absolute certainty).

Thursday Stuff

2011-09-01T13:25:00.007+01:00

Just as the football season had started to take off, the wind is sucked from it's sails with the joke that is the international break, where England, the fourth best team in the World according to Fifa despite not reaching a semi-final since 1966, play all manner of small eastern European teams to qualify for a jamboree of football next year where we will lose the first knockout match we play.

But let's not forget how good this season has been, even if I may be a bit biased because my ante post Lucky 15 is going to return thousands. Last year's Premier League was rubbish, and was won by the best of a bad lot. This year however, there are two genuinely world class teams from Manchester that will steam roller every other team they play on route to the title, whilst Chelsea and the rejuvenated Arsenal play for a distant third.

It was heartwarming to see overrated celebrity sporting duo Rory McIlroy and Caroline Wozniacki finally come public with their love for each other last week. McIlroy, winner of three golf tournaments in his illustrious career, and Wozniacki, the worst number one since Joe Dolce, were pictured snogging in public as onlookers watched and cheered.

It's easy to see why mop haired Rory was attracted to the beautiful C-Woz, but maybe this picture on the blog a while back was the icing on the cake. Talk about a nine or ten on the Stimp Meter, Ken Brown's balls would never stop rolling up that surface.

Whilst I love my job, the first real test comes this weekend as it's the start of the College Football season and won't be able to watch the usual five games a week, as well as ESPN College Gameday, simply the best programme on television.

The Oklahoma Sooners are most pundits tip this year, and available at 9/2 with Bodog. But you can usually expect a few lead changes and upsets along the way so a token couple of tips from me would be the Nick Saban coached Alabama (Bet365 were 15/2 last night but seem to have taken their prices down), and the Florida Gators who look big value at 25/1 with Hills.

NFL starts properly next weekend and I have the weekend off work to enjoy it all. As mentioned before, the value this year lies with the Atlanta Falcons, at a general 16/1.

There is a possibility the ever popular think link will return tomorrow night, if I can be bothered.

Weekend Yankee

2011-08-26T22:00:00.001+01:00

Well I got out of jail on last weekends bets, laying out £60 and getting £63 back, largely thanks to Oxford beating Swindon despite playing very poorly from all accounts. Whitney Houston once proclaimed "Love will save the day" but if she had been at the County Ground on Sunday she'd surely have re-released that great track as "James Constable will save the day". She wasn't there of course, in fact she probably hasn't got a clue where she was due to thirty years of shoving gak up her nose. But I digress.

I've got the ammo stashed up to have a right good punt this season when the price is right. I'm just waiting for one of the bookie chaps to go 4/7 on a general 4/9 shot that looks like a certainty and I'll steam right in. But nothing strikes me as great value this week. I think Aston Villa, Swansea, and Liverpool are far too short and laying all of them to level stakes will yield a profit.

But I've instead gone for a £5 Yankee on the following four draws, which if successful Blue Square will be sending me £1,697 and I can buy enough angel delight to cover the lead singer of 2 Unlimited from head to toe:

Newcastle v Fulham
Tottenham v Man City
Blackburn v Everton
Aston Villa v Wolves

Celebrity Big Brother

2011-08-22T15:05:00.004+01:00

I've spent most of the day catching up on Celebrity Big Brother, living the dream eh? Despite having not heard of half of them, I found it to be quite enjoyable, and as reality TV is probably the only thing I'm beating the bookies at in my lifetime, we have to watch when there's money to be made.

At first glance I thought backing Jedward at 13/8 would be buying money. The rules have changed meaning that all the evictions are now "vote to save" rather than "vote to evict". This guarantees keeping the bigger names in until the end, and you'd expect them to be there or thereabouts. But there must be a chance that they will have gotten on everybody's tits by the end of this, if indeed they haven't been murdered by their fellow housemates by then.

I have never watched a single episode of "The Only Way Is Essex" in my life, so I had no idea who this Amy Childs bird was, but she's certainly fit, and whilst she can't possibly be as thick as she sounds, seems harmless enough, will definitely get lots of votes, and could be a decent bet at 13/2.

She's certainly better value than the disgraceful Kerry Katona who is a shocking 7/2 shot. Yes, she's won a reality show before, but that was long before her drug addled antics that filled the tabloids for a few years before people stopped caring. How this thing has ever persuaded two people to shag her, let alone marry her is a mystery akin to the Bermuda Triangle.

The only other housemate in single figure prices to win the show is Gypsy Paddy Doherty, at 13/2. I took an instant liking to this chap when on the opening night he was asked his opinion of Jedward and replied "I'd drown the little fuckers". Would love to see him win, but I think Amy is a better bet at the same price. If one of the tasks is tarmaccing the garden, those odds could be slashed though.

Of the others, the only one who could possibly win if everything dropped right would be Sally Bercow, an interesting 40/1 shot. The only problem is that she's odds on to go this week, although God knows why, as the bloke from the Next catalogue hasn't said a word since he's been there so not sure where his votes are going to come from.

Tara Reid, who just from the American Pie films alone has probably achieved more than the others put together, is probably my favourite housemate so far. God knows what she's done to herself since those films as she looks hideous, but she should ruffle a few feathers. Americans don't fare too well on British reality shows though, and will be gone before long.

The advice from me is to get on the following bets:

Amy Childs to win - 1pt @ 13/2
Amy Childs Top Woman - 3pts @ 13/8
Paddy Doherty Top Man - 1pt @ 7/2
Bobby Sabel First Eviction - 2pts @ 5/4

Weekend Tips

2011-08-19T21:57:00.004+01:00

Week 2 of the Soccerball then, and week one's main talking point was the reminder if it was ever needed that Joey Barton is not a philosopher, he's a cheating cunt.

The big game is of course Arsenal v Liverpool. You may remember I briefly threatened to abandon my Arsenal roots and jump ship to Liverpool in the summer, but I just couldn't go through with it. This campaign by a growing number of journalists (and that's all it is) to get the best manager in Premier League history (last time I looked Arsenal had been Champions League regulars making decent profits whilst a certain other teams debt was around £600 million) to get booted out just doesn't sit right with me. Wenger hopefully knows what he's doing for his sake because with dangerous games v Liverpool, Udinese, and Man United up next, the calls for his head can only grow.

The other reason I couldn't put the Liverpool shirt back on was on the back of perhaps the best bit of business ever (selling Torres for £50 mil), the fantastic Suarez aside, they've wasted the lot of it on overrated and in some cases incompetent English players that aren't fit to wear the shirt. Charlie Adam is great for the highlight reel but will be woefully out of his depth against a decent midfield.

As for the game, well I'm concerned, and wouldn't be rushing to back Arsenal at a touch of odds against. Losing the tie to Udinese would be financially disastrous so you'd expect there to be a watchful eye on that game. I'll give a token 1-1 score draw as a prediction.

Finding it hard to find great pickings this week. The Everton/Chelsea double looks solid enough at 1.99 (one brave bookie went 11/10 until lunchtime today...), but I'm more interested in a lay of Swansea at a ridiculously short 2.2. I didn't watch the game on Monday night as I was helping my team get to the final of the Oxford & District eight a side knockout cup (where we are 11/4 outsiders in the final), but they lost 4-0 and from all accounts it could have been eight. Wigan are always underrated and you'd expect them to get a draw at the very least.

There is a danger that everybody could get carried away with City of course, which makes Bolton worth a token fiver at 4/1 with Victor Chandler on Sunday. 4/1 for any home team is juicy, and let's not forget they are joint top!

The big game in this neck of the woods is the first meeting for several years of Oxford v Swindon. I personally know of two people who are more than happy to go to jail for what they might do on Sunday, which strikes me as ridiculously silly, but does highlight the importance of this match for both sides.

I can assure you that Oxford have the better side, and whilst it will be tricky to get the three points away from home, will these third rate Italians that DiCanio has signed know the full extent of what they are getting themselves into? Oxford are worth a tickle at 13/5 with Hills, and if the wife is pestering you to take her to that nice Swindon Village outlet centre this weekend, I wouldn't advise it.

It's the Betfred Ebor tomorrow, and I've backed Modun at 7/1, again with William Hill. This horse looks like a proper plot job, and word has it that it did an extremely impressive piece of work with new St Leger favourite Sea Moon the other day. I can see this being one of those nationwide Saturday gambles that goes off about 4/1, and could land a nice touch.

Tendulkar to get ton in dead rubber

2011-08-17T12:55:00.002+01:00

I was all excited about this test series against India. England were always going to have the upper hand in these conditions, but would we be able to win the series by the two test margin needed to become World No.1?

In the end it's been easy, and actually embarassingly easy, with England skittling them out for fun, and seemingly no effort on or off the pitch from the Indian touring side. How crucial I wonder was that first day of the series, when England were in a spot of bother, but the injury to India's best bowler made it one way traffic from then on.

The final test is tomorrow, and with a combination of the understandable England celebrations and maybe the foot coming off the pedal slightly, and the Indians surely wanting to restore their tattered pride, this one could be closer.

The Oval is traditionally a batsmans paradise. Mark Ramprakash gets a century there every week yet he never managed to stay in the England side, so I really fancy this could be the time for Tendulkar to get his hundreth hundred.

I'm happy to gamble that he gets it in the first innings (you don't see many second innings centuries), so the 11/2 with Blue Square looks great value.

The Betfred Ebor meeting starts at York today, and I've done a little each way Lucky 15 on the following:

2.00 Kanaf @ 11/1
2.30 Furners Green @ 9/2
3.05 Sea Moon @ 7/2
3.40 Await The Dawn @ 5/6

Take a chance on the overpriced Potters

2011-08-12T22:05:00.003+01:00

What a difference a week makes eh? Well er...no actually. I've done very little of interest in the last week, had no bets at all, and no creative blogging juices hence the lack of updates. There was a comment that I could have just posted pics of the Sky Sports News girls instead, but look where sexist behaviour like that got Gray & Keys. Who are they? Exactly.

The only glimmer of excitement occurred on Tuesday, where working alone in my shop, in an area that is at best described as "vibrant" and at worst, well a lot worse (growing up on the mean streets of West Oxfordshire it's water off a ducks back to me) there were rumours of copycat riots taking place. The "Social Networking sites" were buzzing with all manner of hoodlums on their way to pillage and loot. Some of the things posted under the #cowley hashtag were comical, such as the same Tesco's being under seige that one of the customers had just bought a loaf of bread in two minutes earlier.

But the threats were taken ser
iously, not just by myself, but by the police, who were out in force preparing for the incoming carnage. Thankfully a fretful evening passed without incident, but this whole business must have cost the police force millions up and down the land.

Anyway, Soccerball is back properly tomorrow, but I'm still not getting involved. I was planning to have a right good punt on Blackburn at 11/10 at home to Wolves. The smart pundits seem to all have Blackburn relegated already, and they probably won't be far off. But with all the dross around them they would have to have an abysmal season for that to happen, and a nice home stroll against Wolves is the perfect start to a tough season. However there will be better bets this season, so I'm sitting this one out.

The one price that might be worth a tickle is the for Stoke to beat Chelsea. Stoke, always lambasted for their tactics, are a decent mid table club, and they seem to have done better than most in the off season. Another solid season surely beckons, which is more than can be said for Chelsea unless they sign some quality midfielders fast.

The backbone of the team (Cech, Terry, Lampard) are all in decline, and the constant job of trying to fit a square peg in a round hole with Fernando Torres is not helping. Drogba would still be capable of one more great season playing alongside Sturridge with Anelka just behind, but it won't happen, as the biggest flop since Euro Disney is guaranteed a starting place.

Stoke are crying out to be backed at 5/1 with Victor Chandler, but the more pragmatic of you should head to Boylesports, either for the 7/2 (Draw=No Bet), or the 13/10 (Stoke & The Draw). Sorry to jinx the start of the season Tommy...

The Big Kick-Off

2011-08-03T12:58:00.004+01:00

With the marvellous Racing Post football pullout arriving today, it's about time I stuck my tips up for the forthcoming season. Let's get one thing straight - any Sky Sports presenter who calls the Premier League "the best league in the world" should be instantly stoned to death (unless it's Charlotte Jackson, I'll deal with her personally).

Ten years ago the Premiership was a much more even playing field and there was a decent gulf between the Premier and Championship. Now we have four excellent teams, three half decent teams, and an awful lot of dross, making the relegation market particularly tricky to evaluate. If West Ham, with Big Sam and Kevin Nolan, were in the top section this year, I'd fancy them to finish in the top twelve quite comfortably.

Anyway, I got my main bet on yesterday, a £5 e/w Lucky 15 on the four divisions with Blue Square, who to my immense delight knocked me back at first attempt suggesting my stakes were too high. But they're good eggs at Blue Square, and after a phonecall to confirm to them what a loser I am the bet was placed straight away. That bet is:

Manchester United @ 7/4
West Ham @ 9/2
Charlton @ 8/1
Oxford @ 12/1

After about six months of being convinced Man City would win the league this season, I've jumped ship at the last minute to neighbours United. I honestly think it is a two horse race this year with Arsenal pipping ageing Chelsea to a distant third place. United's signings have been excellent, and if they manage to get Sneijder as well then it will be game over. The inherent winning mentality at the club is always worth at least nine points a season as well, and I just think that providing the main stars stay fit they will claim back to back titles.

I have no knowledge of League One, but I follow an avid Charlton fan on twitter, and it would appear that they have splashed the cash in the off season to mount a title challenge. They are also fancied by Chief Racing Post Football writer Mark Langdon, who for some reason is following me on twitter (although I'm guessing not for long). That's good enough for me.

Oxford are a great bet at 12/1 for League Two and I urge you to all get on. I've heard whispers that big ante-post favourites Crawley could be out of their depth this season, and you can also rule out well fancied Swindon. This isn't just the Oxford-Swindon bias talking here, but Paulo Di Canio has never managed before, and I'm hearing that his "exotic new signings" are no better than third rate Italians who also don't speak the language. Not what you need to get out of this division.

Oxford have a great spine to their side with a solid keeper and should boast the best defence in the League, with Michael Duberry looking a class above in pre-season. A friend of mine who watches every single game is ultra confident that they will take all the beating and it's time to get on. The only negative is that Oxford are proven chokers, and it would surprise nobody to see them six points clear at Christmas only to fail to go up.

As for the Golden Boot, I think Wayne Rooney is huge value at 9/1 if he can steer clear of injuries. My old team QPR are absolute good things for relegation at 7/4. I can see Colin Warnock being sacked early on, the lad Taarabt being sold in January, and the team imploding. I can see both Swansea and Norwich surprising people a bit, so there may also be a bit of value in perennial strugglers Wolves at 11/4. Mick McCarthy is already threatening to shut down Twitter and he could have a lot more to worry about come April.

European Championship Darts - The REAL Winners & Losers

2011-07-31T23:08:00.003+01:00

As aforementioned I've been at work all weekend, but did manage to catch glimpses of the darts through the ever helpful JustinTV app (Murdoch has far more important things to worry about these days), and the brilliance of some of the nutters I follow on Twitter providing constant updates.

Would it be an exaggeration to say it was one of the best televised darts tournaments ever? The standard of play all day Saturday and the Lewis v Barneveld match today certainly seemed to be of the highest order, and a shall we say new and enthusiastic crowd adding to proceedings? It's certainly on my radar for next year, especially if it's held in Amsterdam as I've always been a fine connoisseur of the canals, tulips, and architecture.

Anyway, the boy Taylor won again, but was he the REAL winner?...

WINNERS:

PHIL TAYLOR

Yes he was. It now looks a certainty that it was his personal problems at fault for the last year of his darting life (although not sure we can blame that awful "country squire" look at the WC on that), and he's answered his critics in fine style over the last fortnight. He didn't really have to beat much at the Matchplay, but not only did he have some great opposition here, he also had to play three very hard, long games in a day today, and came through it in style.

The majors will be shared around a fair bit over the next five years, but The Power will start favourite for every single one of them, and rightly so.

PAUL NICHOLSON

Yes he's a bit of a pillock, but when you realise he's only wishing he was CM Punk, he's not that bad a lad I suppose. More importantly, his credentials were cemented this weekend. He's a proper dart player who will be a top eight player for years to come, and it's totally up to him to go higher than that.

The way he effortly brushed aside a class player in Terry Jenkins suggests he's to be taken seriously, and let's face it, if Taylor hadn't taken out that 129 at a crucial time this afternoon he would have probably gone on to win the match and then who knows. As a punter I will be looking to lay him at short odds against lesser opposition at times, but he will be a threat to everybody over the coming years.

RAYMOND VAN BARNEVELD

Seemingly unliked by the "knowledgeable internet crucible crowd" yet for what reason I'm not entirely sure. If you were to forget about the absolutely incredible first year in the PDC he had where he single-handedly made Taylor rewrite the darting rulebook, he's the most consistent arrowsmith you can find.

Hardly ever loses to anybody out of the top ten, and consistently keeps up his high ranking despite never turning up for any of the Pro Tour events. There's always been talk of his head dropping, but I didn't see much of that tonight when he came from behind against Lewis (Lewis took out 121 in the deciding leg with Barney sat on 24). As long as he is in the opposite half to Taylor, he should be a decent each way price in the rest of this years events.

LOSERS:

GARY ANDERSON

For arguably the most talented darts player on the planet, he must be the most frustrating player of all time. Peter Wright has improved on the big stage, but for Dreamboy to lose to that kind of player is disgraceful. You can never write this guy off, but he's like a horse where absolutely everything has to drop right for him to win.

Looks like starting clear 2nd favourite for all the tournaments these days, but being in Phil's half of the draw, that is clearly dreadful value.

SIMON WHITLOCK

This guy was unbelievable in the 2010 World Championships, but has done very little of note on the TV since. Still possesses all the ability in the world and plays to a high level most of the time, but lacks the self belief to trouble the decent players. Add that to the fact he can lose to anybody on his day, he needs to sort his game out.

I've got him pencilled in as one of my outright bets for the Worlds actually, so let's hope he keeps losing on TV to improve the price a bit.

THE ITV4 DIRECTOR

The unspoken rule in televising darts is that you don't go to the "amusing crowd shot" just as Mr Taylor is about to throw. You are instead actively encouraged to show people in fancy dress or girls with marvellous cleavage just as his opponent is about to throw, thereby putting him off. It would also be nice not to cut to the wrong double (twice) just as Adrian Lewis is throwing for the match in the best darts match of the year. P45 will be on the desk in the morning, one would imagine.

"Wayne, they think that we're muggers..."

2011-07-28T18:25:00.002+01:00

You won't here much from me on this weekends European Darts Championships, as I'm working all weekend so won't get to see any of it at all. I will throw up a couple of token outright tips though, basically the same ones that got thrashed in Blackpool:

Gary Anderson @ 7/1
Adrian Lewis @ 12/1

That's one from each half of the draw, although lets face it, as long as Taylor shows no signs of fatigue, anything close to his Blackpool form will see him cruise to victory.

Either way, it's fair to say Dusseldorf won't have seen a weekend of action like this since Wayne & Barry went on the pull, whilst Oz & Bomber were getting kicked out of the brothel.

Goodwood Tips

2011-07-28T10:40:00.003+01:00

Well what a day yesterday was. It all started with me giving my twitter followers a 25/1 winning tip in the first at Goodwood. With the two joint favourites not having had a flat race for a combined 1600 days, I felt there would be value in a young horse near the bottom of the handicap. Up pops Hollins, £3 e/w at 25/1 and £2.77 win at 27. Marvellous.

I also ended up having a decent bet on Frankel at 4/5, mainly thanks to my mate Ben, who knows far more about horse racing than I ever will, and was bullish to the extreme about Frankel's chances. Apparently Betfred were going 2/1 that he won by more than a length, and I know he had a piece of that. What a horse, eh?

But the highlight of the day was my performance in reaching the semi-finals of the Oxford & District Aunt Sally Association Singles at The George, Littlemore last night. It was just one of those nights where everything just clicked into place and I hardly missed a stick all night.

It's all very well people stopping me in the street and saying "You're the seventh best Aunt Sally player in the world aren't you?" (proof here), but in twenty years of playing this is the first time I've cracked the last four of the singles. No doubt my bottle will go in the semis and it will have been all for nothing.

Anyway, after rewarding the twitter folk yesterday, it's time to give the blog readers four winners today:

2.15 Labarinto
2.45 Noble Storm
3.15 Manighar
3.45 Field Of Miracles

Bet365 are best price on all four so do a £1 e/w Lucky 15, a £1 e/w acca for good measure, and we'll all be quids in later.

A Glorious Week

2011-07-27T09:23:00.003+01:00

Sunday:

I was off work last week and thanks to some darts bets and other investments (nobody wants to read about after timing) it was a successful week. It's so easy to spend a bloody fortune when you're not at work, as my previous jaunt to Nottingham proved.

So I pushed the boat out in the darts final and had a decent punt on the highest checkout being higher than 135. I had a bullseye on it, as it would almost certainly involve a bullseye being hit. It was a typical example of getting greedy. I think I'd won something like 9 out of the previous 11 bets but whenever you get a little bit cocky in this game, the gambling gods are always on hand to slap you about a bit.

Straight away Phil Taylor checked out on exactly 135, which was like a hammer blow to the solar plexes. Then we had both of them miss doubles for it in Leg 21, as well as numerous other attempts. Add to this the fact that James Wade simply gave up, rather than hold his throw at the end to get my money back (I had covered 18-10, 18-11, 18-12), and I was glad to head back to work the following day...

Monday:

...At least I was until I got into work to find that a rather cheeky ex-employee had been in and somehow taken the Kettle, Toaster, and Microwave from my shop, claiming they were all his. Now I could just about believe somebody buying a kettle out of the goodness of their heart, but a Microwave? And did nobody even look twice as someone is walking out with a huge great Microwave under their arms?

It's become something of an in-joke going round the company actually, and I've had managers phone me up saying things like "Oh, I covered your shop for a week a while back, any chance I can come in and take all the cutlery?".

I also started my latest fitness kick on Monday, cutting out any foods with more than 6g of fat in, and cutting right back on the beer. This is for two reasons. First of all somebody called me fat the other day, and secondly the last person I had sexual intercourse with bore more than a passing resemblance to Fatima Whitbread. It's time for thegame to up his game.

Tuesday:

What a day folks! I've always loved the Glorious Goodwood meeting, so it would have been rude not to do a 50p e/w Lucky 15 on the action from Sussex. To cut a long story short I had two winners, and the other two lost by a neck. I made £40 profit (Did a small each way acca as well), and reinvested the original £15 in the evening at Galway, where thanks to 9/1 and 5/1 winners and a place, made another £50 profit. On top of this myself and my colleague made £80 in tips from a lucky customer on the machines.

I was still SEETHING I didn't lay Rangers at 4/9 though, as well as not getting on Celtic for the League at 5/6 as I have been telling people all summer. The general rule of thumb in football is that when you replace a great manager with a television personality clown, you're not going to have that good a season.

Wednesday:

Day off today and it's all about Frankel v Canford Cliffs. That race will not form part of my Lucky 15, and I won't even be having a bet on it, suffice to say I have been in the Canford Cliffs camp ever since Ascot, but my mind has slowly been changed over the last few weeks. If they ride Frankel properly this time, it should take all the beating. Although I was talking to one punter who is convinced Frankel won't act on the course whereas Canford has won there before. Great race anyway.

Phil Taylor v James Wade

2011-07-24T10:11:00.003+01:00

Outright selections P/L: -9 pts
Match by Match P/L: +8.83 pts

I clearly overstaked the outright bets, but a decent run of tipping this week I think. Taylor v Wade is the best final we could have had (apart from The Power beating Nicholson about 18-4) and James Wade is my favourite player, but he's got amountain to climb to get close to Taylor over this distance.

I know that you can never read too much into Wade's averages as he just plays at a level good enough to win, but if Phil comes out and bangs a 106+ average (and there's no reason to think he won't) then James will need an all time great performance to win tonight.

To stay close he will have to take out some big outshots, but he's more than capable of doing that, which makes the 5/6 that the highest checkout in the match is over 135 absolutely buying money. Seriously, that is a cracking bet and will probably be done by the first commercial break.

I was tempted by Taylor on the handicaps but in typical Eric Bristow fashion "all you can do is have a couple of correct score pokes", so we will.

Over 135.5 Highest Checkout - 4pts @ 5/6 (General)
Taylor to win 18-11 - 0.5pts @ 10/1 (General)
Taylor to win 18-12 - 0.5pts @ 10/1 (General)

World Matchplay - Semi Finals

2011-07-23T09:10:00.003+01:00

James Wade v Adrian Lewis

As Phil Taylor might say, this match should be a cracker, but the prices look wrong to me. We're on workshy fop Adrian Lewis at 10/1 for outright glory but Wade should be a clear favourite for this game. Wade leads the head to head 16-7 and has looked the more composed of the two players this week.

There's still a bit of needle from the incident at last years Grand Prix, and Wade is much better equipped to deal with such things. Lump on at evens with the Tote (unless you're not allowed to)

James Wade - 3pts @ evens (Totesport)

Phil Taylor v Andy Hamilton

Hamilton won't mind losing this 17-0 after the week he's had. Getting past Anderson and Henderson is one thing, but he performed the great escape against Simon Whitlock yesterday by winning nine legs on the trot. The money he's earned towards the order of merit keeps him in the televised tournaments for the next couple of years, but the buck stops here.

Taylor is getting better all the time and I can't see this being anything other than a demolition job. His respect for "The Hammer" prevents me lumping on the handicap again, but in a match that might not be the most hotly contested semi final of all time I'm going to have a small bet on less than 13.5 maximums, at 5/6.

Under 13.5 180's - 1pt @ 5/6 (Skybet, VC, Bet365)

What a King George we have today and I've just had a very small bet for interest on St. Nicholas Abbey which seems a tad overpriced at 3/1 considering it was odds on in places a week ago.

Quarter Finals

2011-07-22T10:18:00.003+01:00

Quarter Finals today then and I've made a small faux pas. I agreed to go out in the afternoon for a few ales with Big Carl, not realising there was an afternoon session at the Winter Gardens. Oh well, let's hope he likes watching darts.

Simon Whitlock v Andy Hamilton

I didn't get to see much of these two last night as I was out, but Whitlock looked right back to his best and pinged in a 97 average. He also had a 52% checkout success rate, and a repeat of that performance will obviously be too strong for Hamilton.

It's first to 16 now, and at first glance I was tempted with Whitlock -4.5 legs (meaning he would need a 16-11 win or better) at 4/5, but have decided to leave it alone and watch.

No Bet Adrian

Lewis v Mark Webster

According to the Betfair forum, Lewis split from his missus straight after winning the World Title? What with his well documented tax bills and the price of a one year old child, it's about time he started winning some events. Darts really is the new rock 'n' roll by the looks of it.

To be fair, Lewis has played pretty well since scrambling over the line against Painter. Webster hit some big checkouts at exactly the right time against Beaton to take control of the game and did the job in style, but there's almost ten points between these two in the tournament averages.

I can only see one winner here and 2/5 Lewis will appeal to the big hitters, but I'm going to have a medium sized bet on Jackpot winning 16-12 or better.

Lewis -3.5 legs: 2pts @ 10/11 (General)

James Wade v Raymond Van Barneveld

Game of the day by far and would be a worthy final. Wade is just a born winner, and he's a worthy favourite here as he is bound to average in the very high nineties. Barney needs to up his level from the Nicholson game, although he did show much more steel than usual in dealing with a New Echelon comeback.

It's a game to savour and one that could conceivably go either way, and with it almost guaranteed to be a game of high quality, my advice is to go long on maxes. 13 is all we need and with this likely to go close to 30 legs, that's not asking much at all from these two scoring powerhouses.
Over 12.5 180's - 3pts @ 10/11 (VC & Coral)

Phil Taylor v Wes Newton

Taylor looked right back to his best against Wayne Jones last night (not good enough to stop us landing the Jones handicap bet though...) and is close to nailed on tonight. Newton did impress me last night though. When games go on past midnight the quality is usually garbage, but not only did he play well against a very slow player, he did it with a 99 average as well.

If Newton has the bottle tonight he has the ability to keep the score respectable, but beating an in-form Taylor over the best of 31 legs is something that just doesn't happen. I've revised my opinion of Wes this week, but Taylor will stretch clear after the 2nd commercial break and land the handicap with ease.

Phil Taylor -5.5 legs: 3pts @ 8/11 (VC)

It was with extreme pride last night that I got a personal message from Snooker player Mark King, suggesting I need to go to Gamblers Anonamous (sic). Actually i don't think i do these days, but he's referring to an almighty punt I had on him to beat a long washed up John Parrott back in 2008, and I suggested that he might not have been at his absolute best in that game. Perhaps if Mr. King had read this blog post before he went on, it might have fired him up a bit. Not so happy days...

On a snooker theme I wish people would stop slagging off Ronnie O'Sullivan just because he couldn't be bothered to go to Australia. Snooker was dying a death until O'Sullivan hit his peak, and whilst the game wouldn't have died, we certainly wouldn't be watching it on terrestrial TV anymore without him.

Any King George tips for tomorrow would be appreciated. How on earth has the O'Brien horse gone from evens to 11/4 in the space of a week?

World Matchplay - Day Six

2011-07-21T10:38:00.004+01:00

Four days in profit on the trot, and hopefully we can make that five cos it's Hammer time tonight.

Simon Whitlock v Denis Ovens

Whitlock's recent form is a long way off his best, and if Peter Wright had held his nerve on some doubles late in the match, he would have been on his way home.

Ovens "Don Johnson" piss take is absolutely brilliant and I'd love to see him win this. He started great against Ronnie Baxter before going to pieces in the 2nd half of the match and a better opponent would have made him pay.

You would expect Whitlock to raise his game and cruise through here, but stranger things have happened.

No Bet

Andy Hamilton v John Henderson

Hamilton had the best win of the first round for my money. He played like the Andy Hamilton of old and stayed firm in the midst of a barrage of maximums from Gary Anderson. His finishing was excellent and he looks a good thing here.

Henderson as expected gave Colin Lloyd his usual first round defeat, and the encouraging thing was that he got better as the match went on. He hits a lot of maxes and has a punchers chance, but Hamilton should be much shorter given his return to form and his experience on this stage.

Andy Hamilton - 3pts @ 4/5 (Stan James)

Phil Taylor v Wayne Jones

Taylor did nothing wrong against an inspired Mark Hylton in the first round, and the draw has opened up for him like Moses parting the red sea. Jones is the model of consistency and will win a few legs, but it would be a huge shock if The Power stumbled here.

That said, I've had a tenner on Jones with a 6.5 leg head start for a bit of enjoyment.

Wayne Jones +6.5 legs - 1pt @ 5/6 (General)

Wes Newton v Justin Pipe

Newton ended his Blackpool hoodoo with an easy victory over Andy Smith, whereas Justin Pipe knocked out an injured Mervyn King in a match that despite watching on Sky+ x12, was as boring as fuck.

Sorry but I just don't rate either of these two, so I've had a tenner on the underdog for something to do.

Justin Pipe - 1pt @ 11/4 (Skybet)

World Matchplay - Day Five

2011-07-20T11:23:00.003+01:00

Two from two on yesterday's bets, although it was slightly bittersweet with Gary Anderson (my main outright bet) losing, and therefore making the top half of the draw completely pointless.

But first it was all about the Murdoch enquiry, which was amusing in the extreme listening to two men apparently having no knowledge at all about anything going on in their company. And just as I was about to crack one off over the delectable Louise Mensch, all havoc breaks loose with comedian (If Michael McIntyre can call himself a comedian, so can this bloke) Jonnie Marbles launching a custard pie in the face of Murdoch Snr. until getting bitch slapped by his wife, who looked like something out of Charlie's Angels.

Have-a-go-hero Marbles has been installed a 6/4 chance in a fight to the death with Paul Nicholson's "New Echelon", but a 4/9 poke if he ever faces David Haye.

Mark Webster v Steve Beaton

Webster was in complete control over KJP in the first round until Part hit a 9 darter and then reeled off a few legs thanks to Webby missing loads of doubles. He's a class act, and let's hope he plays well as we're on him to average above 91.5 in the tournament (only 88.95 v Part), but he's definitely not in the sort of form he was in late last year.

Beaton has had a brilliant year on TV, and demolished Terry Jenkins with a 101 average on Saturday night. A repeat of that form will be far too good for Webster, and the odds for this match mystify me. Get on The Bronzed Adonis at 7/4.

Steve Beaton - 2pts @ 7/4 (Stan James)

Adrian Lewis v Vincent Van Der Voort

I wasn't able to watch either of their first round games due to being at work, but from all accounts it sounds like Lewis was very lucky to get past Kevin Painter in an epic match whilst Vincent played well enough to see off Tabern without pulling up any trees.

VDV is capable of much better than that, but he'll have to be to see off Lewis who is sure to average in the high 90's. The match odds look about right. I was tempted to go long on 180's but 11 looks plenty high enough so I'll sit out this one.

No Bet

Raymond Van Barneveld v Paul Nicholson

Barney thrashed Steve Brown 10-3, averaging 96 with a set of darts he'd only had for an hour in round one, whereas A-List Nicho was taken to a tie break by Colin Osbourne, yet still there will be people backing Nicholson to win tonight.

Barney had never produced his best at Blackpool until last year when he lost in a great final to Taylor. Nicholson is doing everything right in order to get his Premier League Wildcard for next year, but at some stage he's going to have to let his darts do the talking. The support from the crowd is going to be one way traffic tonight, and I'd be immensely surprised if Barney doesn't win this with a bit to spare.

Raymond Barneveld - 3pts win @ 8/13 (General)

James Wade v Mark Walsh

Wade won his opener 10-0 against a bloke who would be the non dart player if he ever went on Bullseye. Walsh upset the odds by hammering the well talked up Dave Chisnall. Walshie had a much better average than Wade from those encounters, but it's never been worth taking any notice of James Wade's average. He's a brilliant competitor who simply does enough to win, and has got every chance of landing yet another major this week. A repeat performance from Walsh would give him a chance if Wade is off his game, but the prices look spot on.

No Bet

World Matchplay - Day Four

2011-07-19T08:50:00.003+01:00

A profit was made yesterday but two pretty bad calls as well. Scott Rand will win plenty of games on TV but it was foolish to back him in his first major match against a player as experienced as Jones. From watching the game late last night I'm guessing Rand would have traded fairly short in play, but his doubling went to pieces when it mattered. And the Pieman never turned up, which allowed Newton to coast through despite only just scraping a 90 average.

It was quite a sickening broadcast by Sky last night. They may as well have called it "The Phil Taylor Show" as that's all the commentators were allowed to talk about. The first two winners weren't allowed an interview afterwards as this night was nothing to do with them. And there was certainly no danger of us getting to listen to the superb Eric Bristow last night as he may have said something negative. No, instead we had to put up with perennial puppets Harrington and Mardle who have clearly got a clause in their Sky contract that says any negative words about the great 15 time World Champion will be met with immediate termination.

That said, I thought he played pretty well last night, and the match confirmed what I already knew - Mark Hylton is one hell of a darts player. If he had been playing just about anybody else in the first round they'd have been on their way home. I just pray the bookies don't catch on for a few more tournaments but alas they probably will.

Two tight games tonight and two walkovers:

Ronnie Baxter v Denis Ovens

A year or so ago Baxter would have been a 4/11 shot for this given his good form and the fact that Ovens never plays his best on TV. But Baxter is struggling for form, and Captain Hobo had a great run through to the UK Open Semi Finals.

It's a tough one to call this. If I had to pick a winner I'd say Ovens, but instead I'll have a small bet on Baxter's average being less than 92.5. Not too many players have gone above that this week, and with Ovens being a methodical player, you can see this being a bit of a scrap with plenty of missed doubles.

Baxter Match Average Under 92.5 - 1pt @ 5/6 (VC)

Colin Lloyd v John Henderson

As soon as the draw came out this was the match I was salivating over the layers pricing up. I was hoping we'd get about 2/1 on Big John sending Jaws to his traditional first round defeat. Unfortunately he's as low as evens in places, and with this being his first big PDC match, I've got to swerve it at that price.

No Bet

Gary Anderson v Andy Hamilton

I was extremely confident before this tournament started that Gary Anderson would end up winning it, and nothing I've seen since has changed my mind. Andy Hamilton is one of the PDC old guard that has been swamped by the BDO switches of the last five years. Whereas the likes of Newton and Jones have raised their games to keep up, The Hammer is in world ranking freefall.

There's only one winner here as the early PDC nerves of Anderson have long gone, but there's no point backing 1/6 shots. The bet to do is simply go high on the 180 count. It cops in almost every match Anderson plays, no matter how high they pitch the line, and Hamilton hits his fair share of maxes as well. Bet of the night.

Over 7.5 180's - 3pts @ 4/6 (General)

Simon Whitlock v Peter Wright

If you take out Whitlock's brilliant form in reaching the World Final a couple of years ago, his PDC career in the big events has been pretty poor. Wright was a bit of a laughing stock when he first appeared on our screens with the silly hair and poor darts, but has looked more comfortable of late.

That said this should be a routine victory for Whitlock, who could be the dark horse from the bottom half of the draw. I'm tempted to have a few quid on Whitlock -3.5 Legs at 4/6 (and probably will if the other bet goes down...), but we'll give it a miss.

No Bet

World Matchplay - Day Three

2011-07-18T11:47:00.004+01:00

Small profit yesterday although it could have been so much better. Think I nailed the preview of every match on here, just should have had the bottle to back Walsh at odds against really...never mind. I also made myself look a right cock in my betting shop yesterday. My only bet of the day was an each way investment on Banimpire for the Irish Oaks at 8/1. I was giving it the old "Oi Oi Oi how far" malarkey when the rest of the shop pissed themselves with laughter when Frankie seemed to literally come out of the clouds to nab him on the line. SEETHING.

Wayne Jones v Scott Rand

Jones has been ultra consistent for years, and turned into a decent TV player over the last couple of years.

I haven't seen much of this Scott Rand, but he's had some cracking results in the tour events this season, and I'm going to take a punt on him tonight at 7/4.

Rand to beat Jones - 1pt @ 7/4 (SportingBet)

Mervyn King v Justin Pipe

The most underrated player in the PDC v possibly the most overrated player in the PDC. You could have got 1/2 King last night and I was considering an almighty punt, although it's now 4/9 so we'll leave it alone.

King is absolutely leagues above Pipe, and the only thing standing in the way of a 10-2 sort of scoreline is Pipe's ridiculously slow throwing, of which there really ought to be some sort of rule against. We're on King at huge odds for the tournament so no need to get involved here.

No Bet

Phil Taylor v Mark Hylton

Taylor is hanging on by his fingernails to his only PDC trophy, and will no doubt have got his preparation spot on for this tournament. There's every chance he could thrash Hylton with a 106 average tonight, go odds on for the tournament and we'll all be saying how silly we were to write him off in the first place. I think he'll win tonight, but would still fancy Anderson to beat him if they meet in the semis.

Hylton has been brilliant since making his TV debut at last years Grand Slam. It's a shame he's drawn Taylor really as he would have been a great bet at odds against versus the likes of Nicholson and Osbourne. Still, he's bound to play up to a high standard, and with all the doubts surrounding Taylor, you've got to fancy "Mile High" to win five legs or more.

Hylton +5.5 Legs - 3pts @ 10/11 (Skybet)

Wes Newton v Andy Smith

Newton has improved of late, of that there's no doubt. But I can't be having him as a top ten player. As a Fleetwood lad, he's got an awful record in this event, possibly putting too much pressure on himself as the home favourite. He's played four, lost four in this tournament, and there's every chance that run could continue tonight.

Smith used to be a perennial 2nd round loser in the televised events but has upped his game hugely over the last couple of years, and is capable of beating anybody. This game is too close to call. If Newton starts fast he could win quite handily, but I think it's more likely to be a long struggle (with Newton probably prevailing).

Over 16.5 Legs - 1pt @ 11/10 (Blue Square)

World Matchplay - Day Two

2011-07-16T23:05:00.004+01:00

Oooh, ups and downs today folks, more downs than ups as ever though. Let's start with the good news. I won the free Roulette tournament in Ladbrokes today. You get £100 in mythical money and five minutes to see what you get it up to. As i was in quite early I knew I had to set a decent clubhouse lead as it were. Sure enough with a bit of luck I managed to get it up to £510...a decent total that would take some beating. As it happened the next best score all day was £236 so I get £20 free credit tomorrow. You have to have one spin so it's £10 on red, £10 on black, and hope it's not zero...

Terry Jenkins let me down big time in the darts tonight though. It turns out Peter Manley was spot on after all. And that's why he's on £600 plus all the beer he can drink on a one night exhibition and I'm doing 62 hours a week to get by...

I did have a few quid on Vincent Van Der Voort (I'm actually doing all my bets for £10 a point after showing a profit on every tournament except one last year), but we were gubbed in fine style on the VDV 180's bet. Tabern managed to make it 3-3 in maxes in the very last leg unfortunately.

You remember the £53 worth of Paddy Power bets I didn't bother putting on for a friend? Had a look today and it turns out he's got £1 ew on Ricky Fowler at 100/1...I think I'm safe on his other picks, but you can just see young Ricky waltzing away with the title now. At least the guitar auction is in good shape. Only up to £103 (it ends Wednesday lunchtime), but an incredible 74 watchers so I'm hoping for a monkey.

Paul Nicholson v Colin Osbourne

I used to quite like Nicholson when he was the up and coming pantomime villain but I can't stand all this "A-List" twitter bollocks. The bloke had a couple of very good wins at the UK Open, but I'm not totally convinced he's the real deal yet, and as for thinking he had a chance with Cheryl Cole...

It's a shame "The Asset" is playing somebody as bad as Osbourne, otherwise I would recommend a hefty lay, but fear not, we'll get the chance of that very soon.

No Bet

Dave Chisnall v Mark Walsh

Chisnall's credentials are well known to followers of this blog although the bookies have finally caught up to how good he is. In a funny way though this is probably a good draw for Mark Walsh, a man who has never seemed to perform when favourite for an early round TV match but as the underdog is more than capable of pushing Chizzy all the way.

Skybet and Boylesports will see plenty of business for their 4/6 Chisnall quotes but something tells me this could be a long game.

Over 16.5 Legs - 1pt @ 10/11 (General)

James Wade v Jamie Caven

Wade silenced all the doubters by winning the UK Open (a shame as I was hoping to get a big price on him for this event), and he is simply great at grinding out majors that Phil Taylor gets knocked out early from.

Caven just never seems to bring his board form to the TV events, and whilst Wade can lose to anybody when he's not in the zone, it's very hard to envisage an upset here.

No Bet

Raymond Van Barneveld v Steve Brown

I'm only just realising what a dull night of darts this is compared to the Saturday lineup. Still, you never know there could be shocks a-plenty and it could be great.

Brown will have plenty of support for this match at 5/2 as he's had a decent couple of years whereas Barney has underachieved. Just can't see it myself though.

I've been to this event several times and I promise you that last match on Barney will get ALL the support and the rumours I'm hearing are that he's ready for this event. Brown is a capable player, but he's nowhere near good enough to live with the B+ game of Barneveld over a long format.

Brown is a decent 180 hitter, although the layers have finally cottoned onto that as well :o(

I can see Barney winning this quite comfortably actually, so on a night to keep your money for another day, let's have a small investment on him to win 10-6 or better:

Barneveld -3.5 legs - 1pt @ 6/5 (Skybet, Betfred)

World Matchplay - Day One

2011-07-15T22:52:00.005+01:00

With current Open favourite Martin Kaymer (£5 e/w at 20/1), and Adam Scott (£5 e/w at 66/1) my only remaining hopes of a golfing return, all eyes are focused on Blackpool, the best place on earth, for the next week. And you never know, the World Matchplay Darts might even end up being better than the Snooker World Cup. I know, it's going to be tough, but I think it just might be.

Terry Jenkins v Steve Beaton

Peter Manley was on air in your local Betfred shop today with his Matchplay preview and he tipped Beaton to have a good chance of an upset here, citing the fact Jenkins preparation (he's driving up and back on the day) may not be good enough.

With the greatest respect, that's why Peter Manley is trying to sell Take That tickets on Twitter, and I'm still the best darts tipster on the internet. Beaton did the blog proud by landing us a huge punt against Nicholson at this stage last year, but not many people will get the better of Jenks over nineteen legs, and 4/7 is perfectly good value for a bet.

Jenkins to beat Beaton - 3.5pts @ 4/7 (Stan James)

Vincent Van Der Voort v Alan Tabern

Tabern was a player I always liked to keep on my side, but he's been desperately disappointing over the last eighteen months or so. He just seems to get into winning positions and then not quite get over the line, and it's hard to see him reversing that trend with the standard getting higher all the time.

Van Der Voort, despite some health problems, has been in decent nick this year, and from all accounts has come into this event on the back of some decent preparation. I just can't see anything other than a VDV win here, and he's also worth backing to get the most 180's.

VDV to beat Tabern - 3pts @ 4/6 (General)
VDV Most 180's - 2pts @ 10/11 (Skybet)

Adrian Lewis v Kevin Painter

Interesting game this. Painter has done nothing of note in the last year, but has recently had eye surgery which according to my sources (Peter Manley in your local Betfred shop) has made "the treble twenty bed look like a bucket".

Lewis doesn't have a great record in this tournament (like most other TV tournaments), but as current World Champion you'd expect him to have prepared well for this. We're on him at 10/1 for outright glory so no need to get involved in this game, especially as the odds look spot on. If Lewis gets off to a flyer there could be value in laying at extremely short odds in running as Painter will slow things down and fight all the way.

No Bet

Mark Webster v John Part

Another fascinating contest on a superb opening night of arrers. I was openly wondering whether getting thrashed every week in the Premier League would destroy Webby's confidence, but his excellent UK Open campaign (extremely close to beating Wade in the semis) seems to suggest it may have toughened him up. He's as tenacious as they come, understands the importance of these big TV events to continue to climb the rankings, and I expect a big showing.

Everybody's 2nd favourite Canadian John Part seems to be back in love with the game and has done ever so well in the Players Championship events to qualify for this. We all know how good he can be at his best, but is he back to his best? Time will tell, and he could be a dark horse for this tournament. But is last match on a rowdy night ideal conditions for him?

I can only see a Webster victory here I'm afraid, but rather than upset the powers that be and tip against King John, why not have a few quid with Victor Chandler that Webster's tournament average is higher than 91.5 at 5/6? Late last year he was clocking in close to a ton average for fun so it's hard to see him dip under that mark, win or lose.

Webster Tournament Average Above 91.5 - 2pts @ 5/6 (VC)

World Matchplay Darts

2011-07-14T13:28:00.005+01:00

Well here we go, the best darts tournament of the year is just two days away. The PDC has come a long way since the inaugral matchplay in 2004, when unknown American Larry Butler (deservedly) waltzed off with the trophy. Now, the standard of play and qualifying criteria makes this the toughest tournament of the year, just qualifying for it is an achievement, and with best of 19 legs from the outset, there won't be any mickey mouse winners of this event.

Phil Taylor is the 2/1 favourite, but The Power hasn't won (or even really looked like winning) a televised tournament since taking this title last year. The draw won't scare him, but is he still as good as he was? Time will tell, but 2/1 is extremely short after the events of the last year and we'll look elsewhere for a bet.

Gary Anderson probably deserves to be favourite for this event. There are still plenty of flaws in the Scotsman's game, but his scoring power is off the charts and that will always give you a chance in a long game. Winning the Premier League would have been a huge boost to his confidence, and it's entirely possible that he could go on to dominate the PDC televised events over the next year. At 13/2 he has to be on our list.

A long shot I'm taking a chance on in the top half is Mervyn King at 69/1 with Unibet. I heard a rumour the other day that he wasn't playing particularly well, but this is for all intents and purposes the start of the season, and if his head is in the right place, that's a huge price for such a talented arrowsmith.

The bottom half of the draw concerns World Champion Adrian Lewis, UK Open Winner James Wade, and former decent darts player Raymond Barneveld. Wade is quality, and will have his supporters at 10/1 but he hasn't got the easiest path through to the final, so I'm swerving him this time.

Lewis was rubbish before winning the World's and has been rubbish since, but if he can recapture the form from the Ally Pally, he could go a long way with a decent looking draw. 10/1 with Stan James is worth a punt.

In case Lewis doesn't blow the field away, Terry Jenkins could be the man to take advantage from the bottom half of the draw. The Ledbury entrepreneur has reached the final twice before, and definitely comes into his own over the longer course matches. Yet again he's been written off by the layers, with Unibet going 49/1.

To sum up, this is a wide open tournament and should be great entertainment. Punting on the outright winner is tough and I've just gone for these four bets for a bit of enjoyment. Both halves of the draw are of roughly the same standard for a change so whoever wins this will deserve it. I've got the week off work for it as well so will try and put a preview up each day, and let's hope we can make a few quid as the week goes on.

Outright Selections:

Gary Anderson - 4pts @ 13/2 (Paddy Power)
Adrian Lewis - 2pts @ 10/1 (Stan James)
Terry Jenkins - 1pt e/w @ 49/1 (Unibet)
Mervyn King - 0.5 pts e/w @ 69/1 (Unibet)

Golf & Guitars

2011-07-13T12:01:00.002+01:00

All British Open wagers have now been placed. I'm basically balls deep into Lee Westwood in a figurative sense. I've backed him three times now and stand to win half a bag if he does, but also have bets on Martin Kaymer and Adam Scott.

A fella gave me £53 yesterday to stick a load of bets on with Paddy Power for him. Sorry Paddy, but I've trousered the cash myself, quite happy to lay his bets, so no doubt with my luck his selections will fill the first seven places.

I'll be studying the Matchplay Darts over the next day so will get a preview stuck up here probably tomorrow.

In other news, my Charvel Jackson guitar is now on ebay. I'm keeping my electro-acoustic as I often feel the need to strum a few Oasis numbers, but I haven't used the electric one in probably ten years, and as they tend to go for between £300 and £600 I may as well cash in.

No doubt the item will be purchased by a huge fan of my old band Lawn. We were destined for superstardom until that fateful night at the Wood Green School talent show when the perverts on the judging panel decided to give the cup to the provocatively dressed fourteen year old dancing girls. Internal squabbles in the band took place after that and things were never the same again.

July Cup Winner Of The Week

2011-07-08T23:05:00.003+01:00

YouTube Find Of The Week

2011-07-08T22:54:00.001+01:00

July Meeting - Day One

2011-07-07T10:37:00.002+01:00

The Newmarket July meeting is here and whilst the racing is great, I've filed it in the "far too hard to bother reading through the form" category. I have had one bet though, and that's a whopping £10.24 on Roman Soldier at 2/1 with Ladbrokes.

Frederick Engels will be all the rage after it's easy victory at Royal Ascot, but I'm not entirely sure it needs the step up to 6f. Another horse in the same race of interest is North Star Boy. If only there were eight runners 18/1 would be an each way price to get stuck into. Might do a £2 straight forecast Roman Soldier-North Star Boy for a bit of interest. Good luck to anybody punting today.

8/11 England good things at Trent Bridge

2011-07-06T11:32:00.005+01:00

So what have I been up to? Oh yes, who can forget Saturday night. After finishing work at 9.35 it was a case of rushing into Oxford to watch the "big fight". There was a real feeling amongst most people I spoke to that whilst Haye was a deserved underdog, he had a definite punchers chance, so I'd had a small wager, more to enhance the enjoyment of the fight than anything else.

Oxford is always packed on a Saturday night, and with only one place in the town centre showing the fight, to say that Eurobar was packed was an understatement. After waiting at least ten minutes for a drink I managed to squeeze into a decent viewing position, just as David Haye was making his way into the ring.

The pub was crowded, the heat in the place was incredible, and the smell of body odour was close to overwhelming. But there was also the feeling that something special might happen, and it would have been one of those great moments in life.

As soon as the first round was over it was obvious what was going to happen, and I was cursing myself for earlier thinking that the 9/2 for Klitschko to win on points was massive yet not having a bet on it. The silver lining is that we absolutely cleaned up at work. My boss knows the time of day, and by going best industry price we took a HUGE amount of money on Haye (and not a single wager on Klitschko).

Sunday night I had yet another really weird dream, this time involving Sir Ian Botham trying to sue me for about £2 million. I have no idea why, but it was really scary. Total nonsense of course, as if in real life England's greatest ever sportsman, not to mention a Knight of the Realm, would act like that.

Yesterday was pretty good. the shop was buzzing all day, and when a couple of non-regulars came in with some very hefty bets on a 7/4 shot in the last at Uttoxeter, I was over the road to Ladbrokes quicker than David Haye could run away from a stiff jab. Had a score at 7/4, and when it won doing handstands I was reminded by text that it was possibly the only time I've ever won on Tony McCoy. Usually it's a case of back him he loses, lay him he wins (and don't get me started on that Westender debacle on New Years Eve all those years ago...).

The winnings have been placed on England to win the cricket today at 8/11. Day-Nighter at Trent Bridge, the crowd will be buzzing, Swanny will be on fire, no worries. As long as we can drop the useless Stuart Broad, and run out Trott as soon as possible, I see no possible flaws in my reasoning.

With the football season still far too long away the next big event is The Open Championship at Sandwich next week. To say golf punters have never had it so good is an understatement. Paddy Power are going an incredible SEVEN places each way on the Open, and Boylesports have trumped them by going EIGHT! Hats off to both firms it's a great offer and I will be getting involved next week.

Currently my main three are Lee Westwood (looks an each way bet to nothing, will surely be there or thereabouts), Martin Kaymer (gradually coming back into form and I'm fairly sure will be Steve Palmers main pick in the Racing Post), and Adam Scott (swinging superbly, will bag a major soon, and has the help of Tiger's caddie). Any thoughts?

Nothing to see here

2011-07-01T21:52:00.005+01:00

Nothing of note to write about this week, move along please. Any slight dreams of a financial return in my direction were swiftly stifled by a perennially cheating Spaniard this evening, as Rafa Nadal ended my man Murray's hopes. I could tell a joke about him being Scottish again now, but I've read at least a hundred of those already today.

Apparently England lost at cricket today as well. I only know this as one of my regulars, who was conspicuous by his absence all day, stormed in this evening in a foul mood. According to him Sri Lanka set a decent total but we could have knocked them off if it wasn't for Jonathan Trott playing far too slow, a theory that seems to be true based on various twitter outrage. He piped up with "I used to work with a couple of South Africans, and they were right selfish bastards I tell you".

With this blog effectively dead until the Matchplay darts, why not pop and have a look at Snookerbackers blog, which seems to be getting bigger and better all the time. Luckily he still (along with Mrs. SB) finds the time to contribute to this blog with some fine songs, and thanks to his twitter campaign to get snooker players to kiss at the end of matches, Mrs. SB's song this week is "Kiss Kiss" by Holly Valance, which always reminds me of my 2nd favourite poster of all time.

It was for a Holly Valance concert and the wording was something like "See Holly perform the worldwide smash hit "Kiss Kiss" and all her other huge hits". Well it made me chuckle at the time anyway. My favourite poster of all time is undoubtedly one I saw in Blackpool advertising a Chas n Dave gig. It had a picture of each of them and then at the bottom, in brackets and extremely small writing ("Not the original Chas").

Anyway I'm off to bed and let's hope I don't have a recurrence of last nights dream. I dreamt that Man City had pulled out all the stops to sign 80's funster Russ Abbot as a goalkeeping replacement for Joe Hart. Now, I'm a huge admirer of Russ...not only did he record the undisputed best song of the 80's (below), but himself and Les Dennis are generally considered to be the 2nd best comedy double act these shores have produced behind Mike and Bernie Winters. I just don't want him playing in goal for a team I'm already balls deep in (and slightly worried about the lack of signings) for next seasons Premier League. That's all I'm saying.

By the way, Coral are going 11/10 So You Think after 8.30am tomorrow. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth...

A Trixie for the weekend

2011-06-29T16:35:00.006+01:00

I have broken my self imposed punting ban for a weekend trixie that on first glance is set to provide many much riches.

Lisicki to beat Sharapova @ 9/4:

Providing Sabine Lisicki has overcome the trauma of having her photo taken with blog correspondent Mr2005 the other day (a photo I'm not allowed to publish due to his resemblance to "a sweaty dishevelled Benny Hill in a golf cap"), then this is huge value against the over hyped show pony Sharapova. I should mention that I have backed as many tennis winners as golf winners in the last couple of years though.

So You Think, Coral Eclipse @ 5/6:

Listen, Aidan took full responsibility for this horse being undercooked at Royal Ascot, but it still needed Frankie to use the whip more often than Caroline Flint in my kinkiest dreams in the last three furlongs to beat him.

From some accounts this is an absolute wonder horse, and while Workforce is respected, I'm fairly sure we'll see the Ballydoyle colt show just how good he is on Saturday.

David Haye to beat the Klitschko fella @ 6/4:

With Rory McIlroy looking terrible value at odds on for SPOTY (do you honestly think anybody other than die hard sports fans will remember the US Open in December?), it would be nice if Haye and Murray could land a British 1-2 this weekend to shake the market up a bit.

I don't know much about boxing other than that the draw is ALWAYS a huge runner in these massive contests (50/1 with Boylesports), but whilst I don't particularly like David Haye, at least he has always come good on his boasts, and I can see this being exactly the same. Klitschko has dodged this fight for long enough, but he finally goes down on Saturday night, inside seven rounds.

What could possibly go wrong, eh?

In other marvellous news, due to being ever helpful when providing change for the hairdressers over the road, I've been offered a half price haircut any time I like (a now very reasonable £7.50). Coupled with the fact that all of the girls who work there could easily get a job on Hollyoaks, I may be keeping my hair extremely short over the coming months. Watch this space.